A technically sound forecast goes nowhere if it is not accepted by those in power, whether they are politicians or upper management. Elaine notes that often the forecast gets manipulated to satisfy political ends or meet targets and plans. Politics is also about biases, motivations, and interests, and comes into play when various incentives and reward structures influence the forecast. She maintains that we need to examine some common problems that organizations face and provide solutions that allow the technically sound forecast to prevail, free of manipulation or bias. She describes a case study in the politics of budget forecasting and offers six strategies to overcoming organizational politics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.