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The Evolution of Disagreement in the Dot Plot

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  • Andrew Foerster

Abstract

The Summary of Economic Projections offers important insights into the views of Federal Open Market Committee participants. The summary’s “dot plot” charts each participant’s assessment of the appropriate path for monetary policy given their economic outlook. A new index measuring the level of disagreement indicated by the dots shows that disagreement fell during the 2010s expansion, was nearly nonexistent early in the pandemic, and has been increasing recently. Policy disagreement is correlated with disagreement about future inflation, but factors unrelated to disagreement about the outlook also play a large role.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Foerster, 2023. "The Evolution of Disagreement in the Dot Plot," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(21), pages 1-6, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96592
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jason Choi & Taeyoung Doh & Andrew Foerster & Zinnia Martinez, 2022. "Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(30), pages 1-5, November.
    2. Kevin J. Lansing & Winnie Yee, 2020. "Wringing the Overoptimism from FOMC Growth Forecasts," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(03), pages 1-05, February.
    3. Kevin J. Lansing & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Persistent overoptimism about economic growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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