This article by John Duca discusses how shifts in technology, transactions, and asset preferences can weaken the relationships between monetary aggregates, the opportunity cost of money, and nominal output. Observed shifts in these general relationships are shown to be consistent with plausible changes in technology and preferences. Evidence indicates that technological advances have reduced the costs of shifting across assets and have lowered the precautionary need to hold monetary assets as a means of conducting transactions. Aside from technological changes, demographic and employment shifts have boosted the role of households in directing investments earmarked for funding their retirement and may have thereby increased their tolerance for investment risk. In turn, these factors may have induced households to shift their portfolios from monetary assets toward riskier assets with higher expected long-run yields.
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