Modeling trends in macroeconomic time series
AbstractHow predictable are real GNP, prices, and other macroeconomic data over long time horizons? The answer depends on the nature of their trends. In this article, Nathan S. Balke describes alternative models of trend for economic data, discusses the implications of these models for forecasting and business-cycle analysis, and reviews some of the existing evidence for and against various models of trend. ; In addition, Balke conducts a case study of real GNP and the price level. He finds that a simple linear time trend may adequately reflect the long- run behavior of real GNP. The price level, on the other hand, appears to be affected by infrequent but dramatic events that have long-lasting effects. Consequently, the price level is much more difficult to forecast.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Economic and Financial Policy Review.
Volume (Year): (1991)
Issue (Month): May ()
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Gundlach, Erich, 1993. "Die Dienstleistungsnachfrage als Determinante des wirtschaftlichen Strukturwandels," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 763, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosthuizen, L.K. & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "The Effect And Persistence Of Major Changes In Economic Policies On The Long-Term Performance (Trend) Of Ethiopian Agriculture," 2003 Annual Conference, October 2-3, 2003, Pretoria, South Africa 19089, Agricultural Economic Association of South Africa (AEASA).
- Eric Zivot & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "A Bayesian Analysis of Trend Determination in Economic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1002, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Øystein Thøgersen, 2006. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing by Means of Pay-as-you-go Programs – an Investigation of Alternative Mechanisms," CESifo Working Paper Series 1759, CESifo Group Munich.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Delia Rodriguez).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.