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The future of inflation

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

According to consumer price measures like the CPI, inflation has recently jumped up a notch. What those measures don?t tell us is whether the increase will persist. In this Commentary, we look at a measure that does. The measure incorporates data on past inflation rates, surveys of expected inflation, inflation swaps, and a variety of interest rates. It provides estimates of inflation, along with expected inflation and real interest rates. A look at the measure?s estimates suggests that the recent increases in inflation are likely to be temporary.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Haubrich, 2011. "The future of inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2011:i:oct5:n:2011-20
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201120
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