Forecasts and sunspots: looking back for a better future
AbstractTo head off inflation before it gets started, central banks must use forecasts to determine monetary policy actions. But doing so introduces the possibility that inflation will increase just because the public expects it to. This Economic Commentary explains how random events (sunspots) can affect economic systems and create price volatility. The authors suggest that sunspots can be avoided with an approach that responds predominantly to past, rather than predicted, inflation.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Commentary.
Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
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- Mark WEDER, 2006.
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Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain)
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- Mark Weder, 2006. "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stabilization," School of Economics Working Papers 2006-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Weder, Mark, 2003. "Taylor Rules in Practice: How Central Banks can Intercept Sunspot Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Weder, 2004. "Taylor Rules: intercepting expectations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 110, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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