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On Deficiencies and Possible Improvements of the Basel II Unexpected Loss Single-Factor Model

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Abstract

The goal of the Basel II regulatory formula is to model the unexpected loss on a loan portfolio. The regulatory formula is based on an asymptotic portfolio unexpected default rate estimation that is multiplied by an estimate of the loss given default parameter. This simplification leads to a surprising phenomenon where the resulting regulatory capital depends on a definition of default that plays the role of a frontier between the unexpected default rate estimate and the LGD parameter, whose unexpected development is not modeled at all or is modeled only partially. We study the phenomenon in the context of single-factor models where default and loss given default are driven by one systematic factor and by one or more idiosyncratic factors. In this theoretical framework we propose and analyze a relatively simple remedy of the problem requiring that the LGD parameter be estimated as an appropriate quantile on the required probability level.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiøí Witzany, 2010. "On Deficiencies and Possible Improvements of the Basel II Unexpected Loss Single-Factor Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(3), pages 252-268, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:60:y:2010:i:3:p:252-268
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    Cited by:

    1. Petra Budská & Luboš Fleischmann, 2021. "Vývoj a porovnání konkurence a koncentrace v bankovním a pojistném sektoru v České republice v letech 2007-2019 [Development and Comparison of Competition and Concentration in the Banking and Insur," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(1), pages 3-25.
    2. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2016. "Interdependencies between Leverage and Capital Ratios in the Central and Eastern European Banks," MPRA Paper 74560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Janda, Karel & Moreira, David, 2016. "Predicting bankruptcy in European e-commerce sector," MPRA Paper 74460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Martin Mandel & Vladimír Tomšík, 2011. "Regulace bankovního sektoru z pohledu ekonomické teorie [Regulation of the Banking Sector From the Economic Theory´s Point of View]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(1), pages 58-81.
    5. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2016. "Interdependencies between Leverage and Capital Ratios in the Banking Sector of the Czech Republic," MPRA Paper 74457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; correlation; recovery rate; regulatory capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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