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Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Enflasyonun Üçgen Modeli İle Phillips Eğrisi Denklemi Tahmini: 1998-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Naim Ardor

    (Gazi University)

  • İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu

    (Gazi University)

  • Fahriye Öztürk

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

Çalışmada Türkiye Ekonomisi için 1998Q1-2014Q1 dönemi için üç aylık veriler kullanılarak enflasyonun üçgen modeli ile Phillips Eğrisi tahmin edilerek Türkiye’de dezenflasyon bulmacası olgusunun varlığı araştırılmıştır. Phillips Eğrisi denkleminde NAIRU (enflasyonu hızlandırmayan işsizlik oranı), genişletilmiş Phillips Eğrisi, Hodrick- Prescott filtreleme ve zamanla değişen parametre tahmin modelleri kullanılarak üç farklı yöntemle modele dahil edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre 1998-2014 yılları arasında Türkiye’de dezenflasyon bulmacası olgusunun yaşanmadığı, enflasyon tahminlemesinde enflasyonun üçgen modelinin daha başarılı sonuçlar verdiği ortaya konulmuştur.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Naim Ardor & İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu & Fahriye Öztürk, 2014. "Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Enflasyonun Üçgen Modeli İle Phillips Eğrisi Denklemi Tahmini: 1998-2014," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 25(91), pages 29-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:25:y:2014:i:91:p:29-53
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.35411
    Note: [English Title] The Estimation of Phillips Curve Equation with Triangle Model for Turkish Economy: 1998-2014 [English Abstract] In this paper, the deflation puzzle in Turkey is examined for the period of 1998Q1- 2014Q1 using triangle model of inflation to forecast Phillips Curve. The NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) is added Phillips Curve Model by using three different methods which are Augmented Phillips Curve, Hodrick-Prescott Filter and Time Varying Parameters Model. According to the result of this paper, there is no deflation puzzle in Turkey for the period of 1998Q1- 2014Q1 and the triangle model of inflation is successfull to estimating inflation in Turkey. [English Keywords] E31, E37, J64.
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    Keywords

    Enflasyonun Üçgen modeli; Dezenflasyon Bulmacası; Zamanla Değişen NAIRU; Phillips Eğrisi.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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