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Time‐varying correlations between stock and direct real estate returns

Author

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  • Tien Foo Sing
  • Zhuang Yao Tan

Abstract

Purpose - Understanding correlations between stock and direct real estate returns, which is the key factor that determines diversification benefits in a portfolio, helps formulate and implement better investors' asset allocation and risk management strategies. The past studies find that direct real estate returns have a low unconditionally (long‐run) correlation with the returns of equities. However, assuming that such correlation is constant throughout all periods is implausible. The purpose of this study is to test the time‐varying correlations of returns between general stocks and direct real estate. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, which is a simplified version of the multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, proposed by Engle to test the time‐varying correlations between stock and direct real estate returns in six markets, which include the USA, the UK, Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore. Findings - The empirical results show significant time‐varying effects in the conditional covariance between stock returns and direct real estate returns. The results vary across different real estate sub‐sectors, and across different countries. It is observed that the conditional covariance increases in the boom markets, but becomes weaker in the post‐crisis periods. The authors observed significant jumps in the conditional covariance between the two asset markets in Singapore and Hong Kong in the post‐1977 Asian Financial crisis periods and in the post‐2007 US Sub‐prime crisis periods. Originality/value - The past studies find that direct real estate returns have a low unconditionally (long‐run) correlation with the returns of equities. However, assuming that such correlation is constant throughout all periods is implausible. This study fills in the gap by using the dynamic conditional correlation models to allow for time‐varying effects in the correlations between stock and real estate returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Tien Foo Sing & Zhuang Yao Tan, 2013. "Time‐varying correlations between stock and direct real estate returns," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 179-195, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:31:y:2013:i:2:p:179-195
    DOI: 10.1108/14635781311302591
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolski Rafal, 2018. "Listing of Developer Companies as a Predictor of the Situation on the Residential Real Estate Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 26(4), pages 12-21, December.
    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Fuerst, Franz & Hasse, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Diversification potential in real estate portfolios," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 126-139.
    3. Wolski Rafal, 2020. "Co-Integration Test of Selected Indexes on the Share Market and Index of Housing Real Estate Prices," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(1), pages 100-111, March.
    4. Bart Dees & Theo Nijman & Arthur Soest, 2023. "Stated Product Choices of Heterogeneous Agents are Largely Consistent with Standard Models," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 267-302, September.
    5. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Co-movement across european stock and real estate markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 189-208.

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