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Long‐run price behaviour of equity REITs: become more like common stocks after the early 1990s?

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  • Ming‐Long Lee
  • Kevin Chiang

Abstract

Purpose - The US real estate investment trust (REIT) market experienced a structural change in the early 1990s. This paper aims to examine the following two issues: is the equity REIT market movement positively linked with the stock market movement in the long‐run? If so, how does the long‐run relation between the two markets change after the early 1990s? Design/methodology/approach - This paper examines the long‐run relation between REIT prices and common stock prices within a four‐price system, i.e., REIT prices, common stock prices, bond prices, and private real estate prices, for two sub‐periods: 1978‐1993 and 1994‐2008. This study uses the more advanced Johansen procedure, which is more robust than the Engle‐Granger procedure, to test the co‐integrated relation. Findings - The results show that REITs behave like common stocks during the earlier 1978‐1993 sub‐period. In contrast, REITs become less like common stock and more like private real estate after the early 1990s structural change. These results are at odds with the conclusion of Glascocket al., who examine the relationship between REITs and common stocks within a bi‐variate system with the Engle‐Granger procedure. Originality/value - The paper, as far as the authors are aware, is the first study focusing on the long‐run relation between REIT prices and other asset prices within a multi‐price system. With a more complete price system and a more robust estimation method, this study is the first to document formally that the impressive growth and maturation of the REIT market since the early 1990s has made REITs less like common stocks and more like private real estate in the long‐run. The immediate implication is that REITs are capable of providing investors, such as immature defined benefit pension plans, real estate exposures in the long‐run.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming‐Long Lee & Kevin Chiang, 2010. "Long‐run price behaviour of equity REITs: become more like common stocks after the early 1990s?," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(6), pages 454-465, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:28:y:2010:i:6:p:454-465
    DOI: 10.1108/14635781011080302
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chyi Lin Lee & Ming-Long Lee, 2012. "Do European real estate stocks hedge inflation? Evidence from developed and emerging markets," ERES eres2012_155, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Real Estate Markets and Uncertainty Shocks: A Variance Causality Approach," Working Papers 201436, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2013. "Commercial Real Estate and Equity Market Bubbles: Are They Contagious to REITs?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(12), pages 2496-2516, September.
    4. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Milena T. Petrova, 2023. "The Predictability of Real Estate Excess Returns: An Out-of-Sample Economic Value Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 108-149, July.
    5. Chyi Lin Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming‐Long Lee, 2018. "Low‐frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 311-342, November.
    6. Ogonna Nneji & Charles Ward, 2011. "An investigation of bubble spillovers from the stock market and the residential property market to REITs," ERES eres2011_75, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    7. Omokolade Akinsomi & Goodness C. Aye & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Real estate returns predictability revisited: novel evidence from the US REITs market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1165-1190, November.
    8. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2017. "Herd behavior in the drybulk market: an empirical analysis of the decision to invest in new and retire existing fleet capacity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-51.
    9. Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2011. "Housing and equity bubbles: Are they contagious to REITs?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    10. Philippas, Nikolaos & Economou, Fotini & Babalos, Vassilios & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2013. "Herding behavior in REITs: Novel tests and the role of financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-174.
    11. Ying Fan & Abdullah Yavas, 2023. "Price Dynamics in Public and Private Commercial Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 150-190, July.

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