IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201436.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Estate Markets and Uncertainty Shocks: A Variance Causality Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ahdi N. Ajmi

    (College of Science and Humanities in Slayel, Salman bin Abdulaziz University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)

  • Vassilios Babalos

    (Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata,Department of Finance and Auditing, Kalamata, Greece)

  • Fotini Economou

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Open University of Cyprus, Cyprus)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic effects of uncertainty on the conditional volatility of US-listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). To this end we employ three widely accepted US REITs indices and the two uncertainty indices constructed by Baker et al. (2013). Our sample is extensive covering the period from 4th of January 1999 to 28th of June, 2013. We employ the recently developed test of causality in variance by Hafner and Herwarz (2006) and then we track the response of REITs conditional volatility to various key events as marked by the evolution of the uncertainty indices. Our results provide some useful insights for the causal nexus between real estate and macroeconomic environment. We provide evidence in favor of a two-way transmission channel between REITs conditional volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. Moreover, equity REITs appear rather sensitive to deteriorating investors' sentiment. Our results entail policy implications for investors, regulators and monetary authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahdi N. Ajmi & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Real Estate Markets and Uncertainty Shocks: A Variance Causality Approach," Working Papers 201436, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Alexander Schätz & Steffen Sebastian, 2009. "The links between property and the economy -- evidence from the British and German markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 171-191, September.
    3. John Cotter & Simon Stevenson, 2006. "Multivariate Modeling of Daily REIT Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 305-325, May.
    4. Liu, Crocker H. & Hartzell, David J. & Greig, Wylie & Grissom, Terry V., 1990. "The Integration of the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market: Some Preliminary Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 261-282, September.
    5. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Goodness C. Aye, 2013. "Macro Shocks And House Prices In South Africa," Working Papers 201302, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Paolo Pasquariello, 2002. "Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 263-291.
    7. John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 1997. "Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 487-503, September.
    8. Alan G. Ahearne & John Ammer & Brian M. Doyle & Linda S. Kole & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "Monetary Policy and House Prices: A Cross-Country Study," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 344, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    10. Wilson, Patrick James & Okunev, John & Webb, James J, 1998. "Step Interventions and Market Integration: Tests in the U.S., U.K., and Australian Property Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 91-123, January.
    11. Bradford Case & Yawei Yang & Yildiray Yildirim, 2012. "Dynamic Correlations Among Asset Classes: REIT and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 298-318, April.
    12. Kim Liow & Haishan Yang, 2005. "Long-Term Co-Memories and Short-Run Adjustment: Securitized Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, November.
    13. Ming‐Long Lee & Kevin Chiang, 2010. "Long‐run price behaviour of equity REITs: become more like common stocks after the early 1990s?," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(6), pages 454-465, September.
    14. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    15. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 221-257, July.
    16. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1820-1829.
    17. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 200913, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Evaluating GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October.
    19. Thomas E. McCue & John L. Kling, 1994. "Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy: Some Empirical Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trust," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    21. Chaudhry, Mukesh K & Myer, F C Neil & Webb, James R, 1999. "Stationarity and Cointegration in Systems with Real Estate and Financial Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 339-349, May.
    22. David H. Downs & Gary A. Patterson, 2005. "Asset Pricing Information in Vintage REIT Returns: An Information Subset Test," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 5-25, March.
    23. James D. Peterson & Cheng‐Ho Hsieh, 1997. "Do Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 321-345, June.
    24. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2010. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 218-229, December.
    25. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Wai Leung, 2012. "Asymmetric Correlation and Volatility Dynamics among Stock, Bond, and Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 491-521, August.
    26. Ling, David C & Naranjo, Andy, 1997. "Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-307, May.
    27. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    28. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201009, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    29. Clayton, Jim & MacKinnon, Greg, 2003. "The Relative Importance of Stock, Bond and Real Estate Factors in Explaining REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 39-60, July.
    30. Allen, Marcus T & Madura, Jeff & Springer, Thomas M, 2000. "REIT Characteristics and the Sensitivity of REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 141-152, September.
    31. Ndahiriwe Kasai & Rangan Gupta, 2010. "Financial Liberalization and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on House Prices in South Africa," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 59-74, November.
    32. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    33. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October.
    34. Rhea Tingyu Zhou & Rose Neng Lai, 2008. "Herding and positive feedback trading on property stocks," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(2), pages 110-131, March.
    35. Markus Demary, 2010. "The interplay between output, inflation, interest rates and house prices: international evidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, April.
    36. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-194, March.
    37. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "A Lagrange multiplier test for causality in variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 137-141, October.
    38. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on house price inflation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(6), pages 616-626, November.
    39. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2005. "The response of real estate investment trust returns to macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 293-300, March.
    40. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Keagile Lesame & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "High-Frequency Volatility Forecasting of US Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 283-317, February.
    2. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Comovement In Buying Versus Renting In The Usa," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(3), pages 93-121, September.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Testing the forecasting power of global economic conditions for the volatility of international REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 303-314.
    4. Goodness C. Aye & Matthew W. Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Housing Market Cycle," Working Papers 201757, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Bonato, Matteo & Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Do oil-price shocks predict the realized variance of U.S. REITs?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Comovement in Buying versus Renting in the United States," Working Papers 201832, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Does economic policy uncertainty forecast real housing returns in a panel of OECD countries? A Bayesian approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-60.
    8. Cepni, Oguzhan & Dul, Wiehan & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Wendy Nyakabawo, 2018. "Predicting Aggregate and State-Level US House Price Volatility: The Role of Sentiment," Working Papers 201866, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Uncertainty due to Infectious Diseases and Forecastability of the Realized Variance of US REITs: A Note," Working Papers 202099, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1820-1829.
    2. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Wai Leung, 2012. "Asymmetric Correlation and Volatility Dynamics among Stock, Bond, and Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 491-521, August.
    3. Chyi Lin Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming‐Long Lee, 2018. "Low‐frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 311-342, November.
    4. Fatnassi, Ibrahim & Slim, Chaouachi & Ftiti, Zied & Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, 2014. "Effects of monetary policy on the REIT returns: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-26.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-063 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. I.Fatnassi & S.Chawechi & Z.Ftiti & A.Ben Maatoug, 2014. "Effects of Monetary Policy on the REIT Returns," Working Papers 2014-63, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
    8. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    9. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 15-26, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    10. Kim Hiang Liow, 2006. "Dynamic relationship between stock and property markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 371-376.
    11. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    12. repec:uts:finphd:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Korhan Gokmenoglu & Siamand Hesami, 2019. "Real estate prices and stock market in Germany: analysis based on hedonic price index," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 687-707, April.
    14. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    15. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2011. "The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 911-920, May.
    16. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "On REIT returns and (un-)expected inflation: Empirical evidence based on Bayesian additive regression trees," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 160-169.
    17. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "How Smart is the Real Estate Smart Beta? Evidence from Optimal Style Factor Strategies for REITs," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19117, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2012. "Examining the stochastic behavior of REIT returns: Evidence from the regime switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 291-298.
    19. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. John L. Glascock & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang & Tingyu Zhou, 2018. "Can Investors Hold More Real Estate? Evidence from Statistical Properties of Listed REIT versus Non-REIT Property Companies in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 274-302, February.
    21. Guojie Ma, 2016. "Corporate Behaviour and Market Integration: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2016.
    22. Lee, Chyi Lin & Stevenson, Simon & Cho, Hyunbum, 2022. "Listed real estate futures trading, market efficiency, and direct real estate linkages: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate investment trusts; uncertainty shocks; causality; volatility impulse response function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.