To pay or not to pay: what matters the most for dividend payments?

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to test the stickiness of payout policy across times for Indian firms, by identifying the determinants of dividend payout (for amount of dividends as well as probability of dividends) and examine their predictive consistency through good and bad times, affiliation categories, amid controls for idiosyncratic characteristics. The authors also examine the scantly explored effects of financial constraints on firms’ dividend decisions. Design/methodology/approach - The authors use various regression models, i.e. panel, Tobit and logit models; and amid control for firm-specific characteristics throughout the analysis. Findings - The authors observe payout levels on average increasing with time for Indian firms. Further, group firms pay higher dividends compared to standalone firms. Firms’ leverage, profitability, non-promoters holdings, growth prospects and dividend event are apparently the important determinants of payout ratio and are mostly, but not always, consistent through times and firms’ categories, for both the amount as well as the likelihood of dividend payments. Financial constraints have an overall negative impact on dividends with significantly varying magnitude across periods of stability, crisis and recovery. Firms’ age and size are positive and significant factors for dividends level decisions in Indian firms, which is consistent with the life-cycle theory. However, inconsistent size and age effect is observed in determining the likelihood of dividend payment. Research limitations/implications - This study adds to the growing literature on the changing trends and contributing factors of firms’ dividend payout policy. Originality/value - This study provides evidence on predictive consistency of payout policy of firms and its determination with the change in the external economic condition.