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Investor recognition and stock returns: evidence from China

Author

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  • Hongquan Zhu
  • Lingling Jiang

Abstract

Purpose - Merton’s model of capital market equilibrium under incomplete information predicts that contemporaneous stock returns are positively related to investor recognition and that future stock returns are negatively related to investor recognition. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether Merton’s theory holds true for the Chinese stock market. Design/methodology/approach - This paper proposes the degree of shareholder base growth (SBG) as a proxy for investor recognition and examines the relationship between investor recognition and stock returns through a univariate analysis and Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regressions based on A-Share listed firms. Findings - The results show that investor recognition is nonlinearly and positively related to contemporaneous stock returns and is negatively related to future stock returns in contrast to the conclusions of Merton’s theory. A long-short trading strategy that involves buying stocks with the lowest SBG rate and that sells stocks with the highest SBG rate will earn an average monthly return of 3.615 percent. Research limitations/implications - Though Merton’s theory is not fully reflected in the Chinese stock market, investor recognition is considered an important risk factor in the Chinese stock market. Originality/value - No works have yet investigated the validity of Merton’s “investor cognition hypothesis” in relation to the Chinese stock market. This paper strives to fill this gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongquan Zhu & Lingling Jiang, 2017. "Investor recognition and stock returns: evidence from China," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(2), pages 199-215, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:cfripp:cfri-11-2016-0127
    DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-11-2016-0127
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic: The role of health news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Yan, Yumeng & Xiong, Xiong & Meng, J. Ginger & Zou, Gaofeng, 2019. "Uncertainty and IPO initial returns: Evidence from the Tone Analysis of China’s IPO Prospectuses," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Zhang, Yeqing & Zhang, Xueyong, 2020. "Patent growth and the long-run performance of VC-backed IPOs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 33-47.
    4. Cai, Mingchao & Chen, Zhihong, 2019. "Does country background risk matter to the strategic asset allocation of sovereign wealth funds?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Firm-specific news and the predictability of Consumer stocks in Vietnam," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    6. Huang, Tao & Zhang, Xueyong, 2022. "Industry-level media tone and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 59-77.
    7. Cao, Zhiqi & Wu, Wenfeng, 2022. "Ownership breadth: Investor recognition or short-sale constraints?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    8. Meng, Xiangtong & Zhang, Wei & Li, Youwei & Cao, Xing & Feng, Xu, 2020. "Social media effect, investor recognition and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Cao, Xing & Zhang, Yongjie & Feng, Xu & Meng, Xiangtong, 2021. "Investor interaction and price efficiency: Evidence from social media," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regression analysis; Stock returns; A-share markets; Investor recognition; G11; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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