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The post-1980 debt disinflation: an exercise in historical accounting

Author

Listed:
  • J.W. Mason

    (John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York, USA)

  • Arjun Jayadev

    (University of Massachusetts, Boston, USA and Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, India)

Abstract

The conventional division of household payment flows between consumption and saving is not suitable for investigating either the causes of changing household debt–income ratios, or the interaction of household debt with aggregate demand. To explain changes in household debt, it is necessary to use an accounting framework that isolates net credit-market flows to the household sector, and that takes account of changes in the debt–income ratio resulting from nominal income growth as well as from new borrowing. To understand the implications of changing household income and expenditure flows for aggregate demand, it is necessary to distinguish expenditures that contribute to demand from expenditures that do not. Applying a conceptually appropriate accounting framework to the historical data reveals that the rise in household leverage over the past 3 decades cannot be understood in terms of increased household borrowing. For both the decade of the 1980s and the full post-1980 period, rising household debt–income ratios are entirely explained by the rise in nominal interest rates relative to nominal income growth. The rise in household debt after 1980 is best thought of as a debt disinflation, analogous to the debt deflation of the 1930s.

Suggested Citation

  • J.W. Mason & Arjun Jayadev, 2015. "The post-1980 debt disinflation: an exercise in historical accounting," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 314-335, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:3:y:2015:i:3:p314-335
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. J. W. Mason, 2018. "Income Distribution, Household Debt, and Aggregate Demand: A Critical Assessment," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_901, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Arjun Jayadev & J.W. Mason & Enno Schröder, 2018. "The Political Economy of Financialization in the United States, Europe and India," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 353-374, March.
    3. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    household debt; debt dynamics; deleveraging; disinflation; interest rates; accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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