IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ekm/repojs/v35y2015i1p3-27id211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: Empirical estimation

Author

Listed:
  • André Nassif
  • Carmem Feijó
  • Eliane Araújo

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors. JEL Classification: F30; F31; F39.

Suggested Citation

  • André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2015. "Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: Empirical estimation," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 35(1), pages 3-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:35:y:2015:i:1:p:3-27:id:211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/211/201
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andre Nassif & Carmem Aparecida Feijo & Eliane Araújo, 2016. "Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS: A comparative analysis based on trade pattern and Thirlwall’s Law," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(279), pages 373-421.
    2. Douglas Alencar & Frederico G. Jayme Jr & Gustavo Britto, 2021. "A post-Kaleckian model with productivity growth and real exchange rate applied to selected Latin American countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(297), pages 127-146.
    3. Antonio Soares Martins Neto, 2017. "Income distribution and external constraint: Brazil in the commodities boom [Income distribution and external constraint: Brazil in the commodities boom]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 27(1), pages 7-34, January-A.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; economic policy dilemmas; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:35:y:2015:i:1:p:3-27:id:211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Brazil) (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org/repojs/index.php/journal/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.