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Analiza posljedica globalne krize na hrvatsko gospodarstvo i moguca riješenja

Author

Listed:
  • Škare Marinko

    (SveuiIište Jurja Dobrile u Puli.)

  • Saša stjepanovic

    (SveuiIište Jurja Dobrile u Puli.)

Abstract

U uvjetima visoke globaliziranosti gospodarstva financijske se krize poput valova šire nacionalnim gospodarstvima. Izuzetak nije ni hrvatsko gospodarstvo koje se našlo na udaru svjetske krize. Dubina i jaina krize u nekom nacionalnom gospodarstvu ovisi o stvarnoj snazi gospodarstva koju moemo mjeriti indeksom preduvjeta rasta i momentom rasta. Krize u gospodarstvima s višim indeksom preduvjeta rasta (ona gospodarstva koja su izgradila fundamentalne izvore rasta) j pozitivnim momentom rasta vremenski krace traju i ostavijaju manje negativnih posijedica, za raziiku od onih s niim indeksima. Hrvatsko gospodarstvo bijei nepovoijan indeks preduvjeta rasta i negativan moment rasta te je ekonomski opravdano ocekivati dublju i dugotrajniju krizu u odnosu na druga nacionalna gospodarstva. Posijedice krize bile bi dalekosenije i dubije da središnja monetarna vlast nije vodila razumnu i opreznu politiku u zadnjih nekoliko godina. Iziaz iz krize treba traiti u koordiniranoj makroekonomskojpolitici koja ce drati stopu nezaposlenosti izmedu 14 i 16% te inflaciju izmedu 2 14%. Svako udaijavanje od ovih ravnotenih (optimalnih) stopa dodatno bi narušilo ionako negativan moment rasta i produbilo krizu. Fiskalnu politiku treba racionalizirati i uiniti efikasnom u funkciji rasta jer bi znaajniji pad agregatne potranje mogao usporiti

Suggested Citation

  • Škare Marinko & Saša stjepanovic, 2009. "Analiza posljedica globalne krize na hrvatsko gospodarstvo i moguca riješenja," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 16(2), pages 481-504.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:481-504
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    moment rasta; BDP; model opce ravnoteže; ekonomska kriza.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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