Adopting electric bus for improving efficiency in the local public transport sector: Analysis of facilitating conditions and their nonlinear relationships

Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) are technological innovations that have the potential to strengthen efficiency and sustainability improvement within the transportation sector. However, privately owned local bus transport firms lack the resources to make ZEVs especially Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) easily accessible for their logistics services. Therefore, this study proposes to pave the way for technological transformation in the public transport (PT) sector by exploring how these local bus businesses can facilitate the sustained use of BEVs in order to establish a better efficiency from their services. Specifically, the critical facilitating conditions for adopting batter-electric buses (BEBs) in privately owned local PT companies were obtained using Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL) while their nonlinear relationships of importance levels were predicted using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). A system dynamics model was proposed that illustrates the dynamic nonlinear relationships of the multiple effects of these conditions on transport efficiency (TE). Based on empirical evidence in Nigeria, the proposed methods were verified and the study results predict that government support, affordable electricity tariffs, access to electric minibuses and presence of charging infrastructure are foremost in boosting the sustained use of BEBs in the local PT sector. Meanwhile, government support improves TE more quickly in a short period while presence of charging infrastructure, affordable electricity tariffs and access to electric minibuses are more effective for stimulating TE over a longer period. This study has implications for decision makers and policy makers that design strategies for BEB adoption to improve TE in the local public transport sector.