Autonomous vehicle market development in Beijing: A system dynamics approach

A system dynamics (SD) model for the autonomous vehicles (AVs) market development in Beijing is proposed. The model approaches the vehicle scale evolution with the marketization development of private AVs and shared AVs. Some potential factors such as trust, AV purchase willingness, AV using willingness and shared AV service accessibility, are analyzed. Based on the passenger vehicle situation in Beijing, optimistic scenarios from 2014 to 2050 are developed. The base scenario involves the marketization of private AVs and the operation of shared AV fleets, and based on the levels of driving automation, which are divided into six types. The causal feedback relationship and system flow diagram are illustrated. Results show that with the introduction of AVs in Beijing, the number of private vehicles is significantly decreased, which is dependent on the use of shared AVs. To compare with the private vehicle ownership in 2020, the total number of private vehicles has decreased and the number of the private vehicles is over 2.2 million vehicles in 2050. After 2030, the shared vehicle fleet will be dominated by the high-level shared AV and the number of high-level shared AVs is about 2 million. Further, to consider the impact of ride-sharing, the model compares the different attitudes for customers to share their rides and use the shared AV alternative ratio to approach this. The result shows that the extreme ratio will reduce the number of shared AVs, and the fleet size of shared vehicle is about 400,000 vehicles in 2050. For the low ratio scenario, the fleet size of shared vehicle will increase a lot to over 3,186,000 vehicles, which will lead to a large number of cars on the road and thus increase congestion. The introduction of AVs is expected to reduce the number of private vehicles; However, the uncertainty of residents' attitudes towards car sharing will affect the introduction of AVs. At present, the existing policies prefer to limit the number of vehicles by controlling car registration in Beijing. In the future, with the application of AVs, this could be adjusted by encouraging ride sharing, to achieve sustainable urban transport development in Beijing.