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Scenario planning: Evidence to counter ‘Black box’ claims

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  • Jefferson, Michael

Abstract

This paper takes issue with the claim that scenario planning is a ‘black box’. Instead it provides a large body of evidence, much of it taken from Shell scenario planning documents and communication of their background, logic, and outcomes, to show that there is good reason to believe that this claim can be contested.

Suggested Citation

  • Jefferson, Michael, 2020. "Scenario planning: Evidence to counter ‘Black box’ claims," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:158:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309823
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120156
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuriy Zhukovskiy & Pavel Tsvetkov & Aleksandra Buldysko & Yana Malkova & Antonina Stoianova & Anastasia Koshenkova, 2021. "Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy & Daria Evgenievna Batueva & Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko & Bernard Gil & Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia, 2021. "Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shell's scenarios; A ‘clear box’;

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