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Emerging technologies—beyond the chasm: Assessing technological forecasting and its implication for innovation management in Korea

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  • An, Hyoung Joon
  • Ahn, Sang-Jin

Abstract

Technology forecasting is inevitable in modern society; however, few studies have assessed it under an innovation management framework. By employing the Innovation Readiness Level, we have assessed the innovation performance of the 10 Emerging Future Technologies reported in 2009. The data-mining process, including a patent analysis and survey results, validates the following hypotheses. 1) Technological innovation activities involving the 10 Emerging Future Technologies have increased after their announcement. 2) A chasm exists in the commercialization process of the 10 Emerging Future Technologies. 3) Interaction between innovation practitioners is correlated with overcoming the chasm. 4) Government support is useful for groups having difficulties in overcoming the chasm. Those foundations stress the roles of technological forecasting when entrepreneur assumes the risk associated with uncertainty in commercializing emerging technologies.

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  • An, Hyoung Joon & Ahn, Sang-Jin, 2016. "Emerging technologies—beyond the chasm: Assessing technological forecasting and its implication for innovation management in Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 132-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:102:y:2016:i:c:p:132-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.015
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    5. Seonkoo Jeong & Yujin Jeong & Keeeun Lee & Sungjoo Lee & Byungun Yoon, 2016. "Technology-Based New Service Idea Generation for Smart Spaces: Application of 5G Mobile Communication Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-25, November.
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    7. Funk, Patrick & Davis, Alex & Vaishnav, Parth & Dewitt, Barry & Fuchs, Erica, 2020. "Individual inconsistency and aggregate rationality: Overcoming inconsistencies in expert judgment at the technical frontier," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
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    9. Jugend, Daniel & Fiorini, Paula De Camargo & Armellini, Fabiano & Ferrari, Aline Gabriela, 2020. "Public support for innovation: A systematic review of the literature and implications for open innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Pouria Goldasteh & Morteza Akbari & Afsaneh Bagheri & Ali Mobini, 2022. "How high-tech start-ups learn to cross the market chasm?," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 12(1), pages 157-173, December.
    11. Xi, Xi & Ren, Feifei & Yu, Lean & Yang, Jing, 2023. "Detecting the technology's evolutionary pathway using HiDS-trait-driven tech mining strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. M-Chukri Idris & Alptekin Durmuşoğlu, 2021. "Innovation Management Systems and Standards: A Systematic Literature Review and Guidance for Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-31, July.
    13. Haessler, Philipp & Giones, Ferran & Brem, Alexander, 2023. "The who and how of commercializing emerging technologies: A technology-focused review," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Ahn, Sang-Jin, 2020. "Three characteristics of technology competition by IoT-driven digitization," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    15. Ghaffari, Mohsen & Aliahmadi, Alireza & Khalkhali, Abolfazl & Zakery, Amir & Daim, Tugrul U. & Yalcin, Haydar, 2023. "Topic-based technology mapping using patent data analysis: A case study of vehicle tires," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Mariani, Marcello M. & Machado, Isa & Magrelli, Vittoria & Dwivedi, Yogesh K., 2023. "Artificial intelligence in innovation research: A systematic review, conceptual framework, and future research directions," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Hauke Simon & Jens Leker, 2016. "Using Startup Communication For Opportunity Recognition — An Approach To Identify Future Product Trends," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(08), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Nam, Hyun-Jung & An, Yohan, 2017. "Patent, R&D and internationalization for Korean healthcare industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 131-137.
    19. Shan, Siqing & Jia, Yingwei & Zheng, Xianrong & Xu, Xiaobo, 2018. "Assessing relationship and contribution of China's technological entrepreneurship to socio-economic development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 83-90.
    20. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Belitski, Maksim, 2022. "Public Policy Instruments for Procurement: An Empirical Analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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