The prediction of bank acquisition targets with discriminant and logit analyses: Methodological issues and empirical evidence
AbstractThis paper uses discriminant and logit analyses to develop prediction models to identify bank acquisition targets. We consider several methodological issues, such as whether the choice of the estimation technique, the selection of variables, the use of raw versus industry relative data, the train-and-test sampling scheme, and the criteria for model evaluation affect the predictive accuracy of the developed models. Both estimation methods generate remarkably similar model performance rankings, while differences are revealed in the relative importance of variables when using raw versus industry relative data. We find that in most cases there is a fair amount of misclassification, consistent with previous studies in non-financial sectors, which is hard to avoid given the nature of the problem.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.
Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf
Acquisitions Banks Discriminant Logit Prediction Targets;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stevens, Donald L., 1973. "Financial Characteristics of Merged Firms: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 149-158, March.
- Manski, Charles F & Lerman, Steven R, 1977. "The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1977-88, November.
- Christoph Walkner & Jean-Pierre Raes, 2005. "Integration and consolidation in EU banking - an unfinished business," European Economy - Economic Papers 226, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Hernando, Ignacio & Nieto, Mara J. & Wall, Larry D., 2009.
"Determinants of domestic and cross-border bank acquisitions in the European Union,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1022-1032, June.
- Ignacio Hernando & María J. Nieto & Larry D. Wall, 2008. "Determinants of domestic and cross-border bank acquisitions in the European Union," Working Paper 2008-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Ignacio Hernando & María J. Nieto & Larry Wall, 2008. "Determinants of domestic and cross-border bank acquisitions in the European Union," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0823, Banco de Espa�a.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul Wilson, 2002.
"Consolidation in US banking: which banks engage in mergers?,"
2001-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Wheelock, David C. & Wilson, Paul W., 2004. "Consolidation in US banking: Which banks engage in mergers?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 7-39.
- Hannan, Timothy H & Rhoades, Stephen A, 1987. "Acquisition Targets and Motives: The Case of the Banking Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 67-74, February.
- Slowinski, R. & Zopounidis, C. & Dimitras, A. I., 1997. "Prediction of company acquisition in Greece by means of the rough set approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 1-15, July.
- Bauer, Wolfgang & Ryser, Marc, 2004. "Risk management strategies for banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 331-352, February.
- Gleb Lanine & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2007.
"Microeconomic determinants of acquisitions of Eastern European banks by Western European banks,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 15(2), pages 285-308, 04.
- G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2006. "Microeconomic determinants of acquisitions of Eastern European banks by Western European banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/414, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Cudd, Mike & Duggal, Rakesh, 2000. "Industry Distributional Characteristics of Financial Ratios: An Acquisition Theory Application," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 105-20, February.
- Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis, 2007. "Financial characteristics of banks involved in acquisitions: evidence from Asia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 329-341.
- Palepu, Krishna G., 1986. "Predicting takeover targets : A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-35, March.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000.
"Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions," Working Papers 1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Pasiouras, Fotios & Tanna, Sailesh & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2007. "The identification of acquisition targets in the EU banking industry: An application of multicriteria approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 262-281.
- Barnes, Paul, 1999. " Predicting UK Takeover Targets: Some Methodological Issues and an Empirical Study," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 283-301, May.
- Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2008. "Regulations, Supervision Approaches and Acquisition Likelihood in the Asian Banking Industry," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 135-154, June.
- Koehler, Matthias, 2007. "Merger Control as Barrier to EU Banking Market Integration," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-082, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Barnes, Paul, 2000. "The identification of U.K. takeover targets using published historical cost accounting data Some empirical evidence comparing logit with linear discriminant analysis and raw financial ratios with indu," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-162.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.