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Predicting trips to health care facilities: A binary logit and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) approach

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  • McCarthy, Patrick

Abstract

This paper discusses an overarching framework that integrates latent variable models and prediction success with receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves. In three illustrative examples that focus on trip purpose, health market indicators, and resources, the paper employs binary logit models and ROC methodology to identify factors that best discriminate individuals' trips to out-patient health care facilities. Data for the examples are a three-year longitudinal survey of persons 45 years and older in China. The study contributes to the sparse empirical economics literature using ROC methodologies and more broadly to the transportation and health literatures. The ROC applications provide new insights on health care trips, finding that out-patient trips for treatment, paying out-of-pocket costs, and lack of monetary resources are salient discriminators in one's trip choice decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • McCarthy, Patrick, 2024. "Predicting trips to health care facilities: A binary logit and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:103:y:2024:i:c:s0739885924000064
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2024.101411
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Receiver operating characteristics; ROC; Prediction success; Binary logit; Out-patient trips; Aging; Longitudinal; China; CHARLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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