IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v35y2010i8p1809-1819.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Mackay, Edward B.L.
  • Bahaj, AbuBakr S.
  • Challenor, Peter G.

Abstract

The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in the wave climate. Mean wave conditions exhibit high levels of interannual variability. Moreover, many previous studies have demonstrated longer-term decadal changes in wave climate. The effect of interannual and climatic changes in wave climate on the predictability of long-term mean WEC power is examined for an area off the north coast of Scotland. In this location anomalies in mean WEC power are strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This link enables the results of many previous studies on the variability of the NAO and its sensitivity to climate change to be applied to WEC power levels. It is shown that the variability in 5, 10 and 20 year mean power levels is greater than if annual power anomalies were uncorrelated noise. It is also shown that the change in wave climate from anthropogenic climate change over the life time of a wave farm is likely to be small in comparison to the natural level of variability. Finally, it is shown that despite the uncertainty related to variability in the wave climate, improvements in the accuracy of historic data will improve the accuracy of predictions of future WEC yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Mackay, Edward B.L. & Bahaj, AbuBakr S. & Challenor, Peter G., 2010. "Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1809-1819.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:35:y:2010:i:8:p:1809-1819
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148109004534
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. I. Grevemeyer & R. Herber & H.-H. Essen, 2000. "Microseismological evidence for a changing wave climate in the northeast Atlantic Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6810), pages 349-352, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harrison, Gareth P. & Wallace, A. Robin, 2005. "Climate sensitivity of marine energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 1801-1817.
    2. Adem Akpınar & Bilal Bingölbali, 2016. "Long-term variations of wind and wave conditions in the coastal regions of the Black Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 69-92, October.
    3. Jianmin Lin & Sunke Fang & Runjing He & Qunshu Tang & Fengzhong Qu & Baoshan Wang & Wen Xu, 2024. "Monitoring ocean currents during the passage of Typhoon Muifa using optical-fiber distributed acoustic sensing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:35:y:2010:i:8:p:1809-1819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.