A novel geothermal-PV led energy system analysis on the case of the central American countries Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica

Transitioning to renewables for all purposes in Central America is imperative to mitigating climate change and the impact of COVID-19, reducing fossil fuel imports and enhancing energy security. Research on integrating high shares of renewable energy in the region is still lacking. However, the variability of renewable energy is often raised as a concern. In this context, we present a novel solar PV-geothermal led energy system analysis for the case of Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica, using the LUT Energy System Transition Model for detailed pathway analyses linked to state-of-the-art resource data. This study contributes to the value of hybrid solutions based on geothermal energy and solar PV as the centerpiece of overall supply applied to the energy transition discussion in these countries, which requires further research in countries or regions with similar climatic and resource conditions. We find that complementarity between solar PV and geothermal could be cost-competitive with improved system stability, where the need for battery storage decreases thanks to dispatchable geothermal power. The results illustrate the advantage of a fully renewable energy system, sector coupling, and high electrification rates as the most cost-efficient pathway by 2050. A new perspective is provided and is relevant for energy planners and policymakers in the region and globally.