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A causal perspective on reliability assessment

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  • Hund, Lauren
  • Schroeder, Benjamin

Abstract

Causality in an engineered system pertains to how a system output changes due to a controlled change or intervention on the system or system environment. Engineered systems designs reflect a causal theory regarding how a system will work, and predicting the reliability of such systems typically requires knowledge of this underlying causal structure. The aim of this work is to introduce causal modeling tools that inform reliability predictions based on biased data sources. We present a novel application of the popular structural causal modeling (SCM) framework to reliability estimation in an engineering application, illustrating how this framework can inform whether reliability is estimable and how to estimate reliability given a set of data and assumptions about the subject matter and data generating mechanism. When data are insufficient for estimation, sensitivity studies based on problem-specific knowledge can inform how much reliability estimates can change due to biases in the data and what information should be collected next to provide the most additional information. We apply the approach to a pedagogical example related to a real, but proprietary, engineering application, considering how two types of biases in data can influence a reliability calculation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hund, Lauren & Schroeder, Benjamin, 2020. "A causal perspective on reliability assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019301826
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruiz-Tagle, Andres & Lopez-Droguett, Enrique & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "A novel probabilistic approach to counterfactual reasoning in system safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    2. Wang, Yangpeng & Li, Shuxiang & Lee, Kangkuen & Tam, Hwayaw & Qu, Yuanju & Huang, Jingyin & Chu, Xianghua, 2023. "Accident risk tensor-specific covariant model for railway accident risk assessment and prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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