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Uncertainty analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident in a pressurized water reactor using non-parametric methods

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  • Sanchez-Saez, F.
  • Sánchez, A.I.
  • Villanueva, J.F.
  • Carlos, S.
  • Martorell, S.

Abstract

The safety analysis of nuclear power plant is moving toward a realistic approach in which the simulations performed using best estimate computer codes must be accompanied by an uncertainty analysis, known as the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainties approach. The most popular statistical method used in these analyses is the Wilks’ method, which is based on the principle of order statistics for determining a certain coverage of the Figures-of-Merit with an appropriate degree of confidence. However, there exist other statistical techniques that could provide similar or even better results. This paper explores the performance of alternative non-parametric methods as compared to the Wilks’ method of obtaining such Figure-of-Merits tolerance intervals. Three methods are investigated, i.e. Hutson and Beran–Hall methods and a bootstrap method. All the techniques have been used to perform the uncertainty analysis of a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident. The Figure-of-Merit of interest in this application is the maximum value reached by the Peaking Clad Temperature. In order to analyze the results obtained by the different methods, four performance metrics are proposed to measure the coverage, dispersion, conservativeness, and robustness of the tolerance intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanchez-Saez, F. & Sánchez, A.I. & Villanueva, J.F. & Carlos, S. & Martorell, S., 2018. "Uncertainty analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident in a pressurized water reactor using non-parametric methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 19-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:174:y:2018:i:c:p:19-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Di Maio, Francesco & Bandini, Alessandro & Zio, Enrico & Alberola, Sofia Carlos & Sanchez-Saez, Francisco & Martorell, Sebastián, 2016. "Bootstrapped-ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis of a trace thermal-hydraulic model based on a limited number of PWR large break loca simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 122-134.
    2. Grabaskas, Dave & Nakayama, Marvin K. & Denning, Richard & Aldemir, Tunc, 2016. "Advantages of variance reduction techniques in establishing confidence intervals for quantiles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 187-203.
    3. Alan Hutson, 1999. "Calculating nonparametric confidence intervals for quantiles using fractional order statistics," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 343-353.
    4. Martorell, S. & Martorell, P. & Martón, I. & Sánchez, A.I. & Carlos, S., 2017. "An approach to address probabilistic assumptions on the availability of safety systems for deterministic safety analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 136-150.
    5. Zio, Enrico & Di Maio, Francesco & Tong, Jiejuan, 2010. "Safety margins confidence estimation for a passive residual heat removal system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(8), pages 828-836.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zugazagoitia, Eneko & Queral, Cesar & Fernández-Cosials, Kevin & Gómez, Javier & Durán, Luis Felipe & Sánchez-Torrijos, Jorge & Posada, José María, 2020. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a PWR LOCA sequence using parametric and non-parametric methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Reyes-Fuentes, Melisa & del-Valle-Gallegos, Edmundo & Duran-Gonzalez, Julian & Ortíz-Villafuerte, Javier & Castillo-Durán, Rogelio & Gómez-Torres, Armando & Queral, Cesar, 2021. "AZTUSIA: A new application software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for nuclear reactors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    4. Tolo, Silvia & Tian, Xiange & Bausch, Nils & Becerra, Victor & Santhosh, T.V. & Vinod, G. & Patelli, Edoardo, 2019. "Robust on-line diagnosis tool for the early accident detection in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 110-119.
    5. Queral, Cesar & Fernández-Cosials, Kevin & Zugazagoitia, Eneko & Paris, Carlos & Magan, Javier & Mendizabal, Rafael & Posada, Jose, 2021. "Application of Expanded Event Trees combined with uncertainty analysis methodologies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Mazgaj, Piotr & Darnowski, Piotr & Kaszko, Aleksej & Hortal, Javier & Dusic, Milorad & Mendizábal, Rafael & Pelayo, Fernando, 2022. "Demonstration of the E-BEPU methodology for SL-LOCA in a Gen-III PWR reactor," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).

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