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A novel flexible model for piracy and robbery assessment of merchant ship operations

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  • Pristrom, Sascha
  • Yang, Zaili
  • Wang, Jin
  • Yan, Xinping

Abstract

Maritime piracy and robbery can not only cause logistics chain disruption leading to economic consequences but also result in loss of lives, and short- and long-term health problems of seafarers and passengers. There is a justified need for further investigation in this area of paramount importance. This study analyses maritime piracy and robbery related incidents in terms of the major influencing factors such as ship characteristics and geographical locations. An analytical model incorporating Bayesian reasoning is proposed to estimate the likelihood of a ship being hijacked in the Western Indian or Eastern African region. The proposed model takes into account the characteristics of the ship, environment conditions and the maritime security measures in place in an integrated manner. Available data collected from the Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) together with expert judgement is used to develop and demonstrate the proposed model. This model can be used by maritime stakeholders to make cost-effective anti-piracy decisions in their operations under uncertainties. Discussions are given on industrial response to maritime piracy in order to minimize the risk to ships exposed to attacks from pirates. Further recommendations on how maritime security and piracy may be best addressed in terms of maritime security measures are outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Pristrom, Sascha & Yang, Zaili & Wang, Jin & Yan, Xinping, 2016. "A novel flexible model for piracy and robbery assessment of merchant ship operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 196-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:155:y:2016:i:c:p:196-211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicky Zampeta & Gregory Chondrokoukis, 2023. "Maritime Transportation Accidents: A Bibliometric Analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 16(1), pages 19-26, October.
    2. Anthony Djaba Sackey & Bernard Lomotey & Abigail Dede Sackey & Raphael Ofosu-Dua Lee & Abraham Akwetey Teye & Richmond Kennedy Quarcoo & John Bansah, 2022. "Delineating the relationship between maritime insecurity and COVID-19 pandemic on West African maritime trade," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.
    3. Hristos Karahalios, 2020. "Appraisal of a Ship’s Cybersecurity efficiency: the case of piracy," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 179-201, December.
    4. Özkan Uğurlu & Serdar Yıldız & Sean Loughney & Jin Wang & Shota Kuntchulia & Irakli Sharabidze, 2020. "Analyzing Collision, Grounding, and Sinking Accidents Occurring in the Black Sea Utilizing HFACS and Bayesian Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(12), pages 2610-2638, December.
    5. Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili & Yin, Jingbo, 2018. "Realising advanced risk-based port state control inspection using data-driven Bayesian networks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 38-56.
    6. Çakır, Erkan & Fışkın, Remzi & Sevgili, Coşkan, 2021. "Investigation of tugboat accidents severity: An application of association rule mining algorithms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Wu, Bing & Tang, Yuheng & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "Bayesian Network modelling for safety management of electric vehicles transported in RoPax ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili & Yin, Jingbo & Qu, Zhuohua, 2018. "A risk-based game model for rational inspections in port state control," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 477-495.
    9. Jiang, Dan & Wu, Bing & Cheng, Zhiyou & Xue, Jie & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2021. "Towards a probabilistic model for estimation of grounding accidents in fluctuating backwater zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    10. Jiang, Meizhi & Lu, Jing, 2020. "The analysis of maritime piracy occurred in Southeast Asia by using Bayesian network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Kumar, Sourabh & Kumar Barua, Mukesh, 2022. "Modeling and investigating the interaction among risk factors of the sustainable petroleum supply chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Kaptan, Mehmet & Uğurlu, Özkan & Wang, Jin, 2021. "The effect of nonconformities encountered in the use of technology on the occurrence of collision, contact and grounding accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Fan, Shiqi & Blanco-Davis, Eduardo & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Yan, Xinping, 2020. "Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    14. Domeh, Vindex & Obeng, Francis & Khan, Faisal & Bose, Neil & Sanli, Elizabeth, 2023. "An operational risk awareness tool for small fishing vessels operating in harsh environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Zhou, Yusheng & Li, Xue & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2022. "Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    16. Li, Huanhuan & Ren, Xujie & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Data-driven Bayesian network for risk analysis of global maritime accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Wang, Likun & Yang, Zaili, 2018. "Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 277-289.
    18. Shiqi Fan & Zaili Yang & Eduardo Blanco-Davis & Jinfen Zhang & Xinping Yan, 2020. "Analysis of maritime transport accidents using Bayesian networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 439-454, June.
    19. Chang, Chia-Hsun & Kontovas, Christos & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

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