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Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

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  • Kabir, Golam
  • Tesfamariam, Solomon
  • Sadiq, Rehan

Abstract

To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Kabir, Golam & Tesfamariam, Solomon & Sadiq, Rehan, 2015. "Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 498-514.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:498-514
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.06.011
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    2. Tang, Kayu & Parsons, David J. & Jude, Simon, 2019. "Comparison of automatic and guided learning for Bayesian networks to analyse pipe failures in the water distribution system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 24-36.
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    5. Kozłowski Edward & Kowalska Beata & Kowalski Dariusz & Mazurkiewicz Dariusz, 2019. "Survival Function in the Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Reliability of Water Wells Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4909-4921, November.
    6. Fan, Xudong & Wang, Xiaowei & Zhang, Xijin & ASCE Xiong (Bill) Yu, P.E.F., 2022. "Machine learning based water pipe failure prediction: The effects of engineering, geology, climate and socio-economic factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. Robles-Velasco, Alicia & Cortés, Pablo & Muñuzuri, Jesús & Onieva, Luis, 2020. "Prediction of pipe failures in water supply networks using logistic regression and support vector classification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Yu, Jin-Zhu & Whitman, Mackenzie & Kermanshah, Amirhassan & Baroud, Hiba, 2021. "A hierarchical Bayesian approach for assessing infrastructure networks serviceability under uncertainty: A case study of water distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping & Zhang, Chao & Tomovic, Mileta, 2018. "Bayesian model averaging based reliability analysis method for monotonic degradation dataset based on inverse Gaussian process and Gamma process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 25-38.

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