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Multi-phase epidemic model by a Markov chain

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  • Buccellato, Stefania Maria
  • Tornatore, Elisabetta

Abstract

In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for fade-out or extinction of the infection.

Suggested Citation

  • Buccellato, Stefania Maria & Tornatore, Elisabetta, 2008. "Multi-phase epidemic model by a Markov chain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3555-3562.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:14:p:3555-3562
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tornatore, Elisabetta & Maria Buccellato, Stefania & Vetro, Pasquale, 2005. "Stability of a stochastic SIR system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 111-126.
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