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An age-structured model of human papillomavirus vaccination

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  • Al-arydah, Mo’tassem
  • Smith̏, Robert

Abstract

Recently, a vaccine for human papillomavirus was introduced, but made available only for girls and adult women aged 13–26. Since rates of sexual activity vary by age and gender, vaccinating only an age-limited subset of one cohort may be insufficient to control the disease across all age groups and genders. We develop an age-dependent two-sex mathematical model to describe the HPV vaccination program for a vaccine targeting HPV types 16 and 18 in both childhood and adult stages. A stability analysis is performed to determine the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria for different vaccination programs. The basic reproduction number is derived for perfect childhood vaccination, perfect adult vaccination and childhood–adult vaccination. We show that the effects of age dependency are complex, but that vaccinating a single age cohort in one gender, as current programs do, can result in eventual control of the disease across all age groups. We also support our theoretical analysis with numerical simulations. This provides a framework for future research and public-health policy to determine the dependence of HPV vaccination programs on age and sexual behaviour, as well as how the vaccine can reduce the number of infections and deaths due to cervical cancer.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-arydah, Mo’tassem & Smith̏, Robert, 2011. "An age-structured model of human papillomavirus vaccination," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 629-652.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:82:y:2011:i:4:p:629-652
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2011.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. André Berchtold & Pierre-André Michaud & Denise Nardelli-Haefliger & Joan-Carles Surís, 2010. "Vaccination against human papillomavirus in Switzerland: simulation of the impact on infection rates," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 55(1), pages 25-34, February.
    2. Ellen Brooks-Pollock & Ted Cohen & Megan Murray, 2010. "The Impact of Realistic Age Structure in Simple Models of Tuberculosis Transmission," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-6, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Madhu, Kalyanasundaram & Al-arydah, Mo’tassem, 2021. "Optimal vaccine for human papillomavirus and age-difference between partners," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 325-346.
    2. Solis, Francisco J. & Gonzalez, Luz M., 2018. "Analytical and numerical modeling of the evolution of human papillomavirus infected cells," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 324(C), pages 28-35.

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