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Detecting multiple mean breaks at unknown points in official time series

Author

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  • Cappelli, Carmela
  • Penny, Richard N.
  • Rea, William S.
  • Reale, Marco

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a computationally effective approach to detect multiple structural breaks in the mean occurring at unknown dates. We present a non-parametric approach that exploits, in the framework of least squares regression trees, the contiguity property of data generating processes in time series data. The proposed approach is applied first to simulated data and then to the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product in New Zealand to assess some of anomalous observations indicated by the seasonal adjustment procedure implemented in X12-ARIMA are actually structural breaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cappelli, Carmela & Penny, Richard N. & Rea, William S. & Reale, Marco, 2008. "Detecting multiple mean breaks at unknown points in official time series," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 351-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:351-356
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.01.041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-177, April.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Ruibing & Tian, Zheng & Jin, Hao & Zhang, Xiaowei, 2010. "Strong convergence rate of robust estimator of change point," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2026-2032.
    2. Carmela Cappelli & Francesca Iorio & Angela Maddaloni & Pierpaolo D’Urso, 2021. "Atheoretical Regression Trees for classifying risky financial institutions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1357-1377, April.

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