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The score function approach for sensitivity analysis of computer simulation models

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  • Rubinstein, Reuven Y.

Abstract

Some theoretical and practical aspect of the score function (SF) approach for estimating the sensitivities of computer simulation models and solving the so-called “what if” problem (performance extrapolation) are considered. It is shown that both the sensitivities (gradients, Hessians, etc.) and the performance extrapolation can be derived simultaneously by simulating only a single sample path from the nominal system. It is also shown that the SF approach can be efficiently applied for DESS (discrete event static systems, example: reliability models and stochastic networks) and for DEDS (discrete events dynamic systems, example: queuing networks) under light traffics. Control variates procedure for variance reduction is presented as well

Suggested Citation

  • Rubinstein, Reuven Y., 1986. "The score function approach for sensitivity analysis of computer simulation models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 351-379.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:28:y:1986:i:5:p:351-379
    DOI: 10.1016/0378-4754(86)90072-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reuven Y. Rubinstein & Ruth Marcus, 1985. "Efficiency of Multivariate Control Variates in Monte Carlo Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 661-677, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie Chiron & Jérôme Morio & Sylvain Dubreuil, 2023. "Local Sensitivity of Failure Probability through Polynomial Regression and Importance Sampling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Rubinstein, Reuven Y. & Shapiro, Alexander, 1990. "Optimization of static simulation models by the score function method," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 373-392.
    3. Li, Jinghui & Mosleh, Ali & Kang, Rui, 2011. "Likelihood ratio gradient estimation for dynamic reliability applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(12), pages 1667-1679.
    4. Soumyadip Ghosh & Henry Lam, 2019. "Robust Analysis in Stochastic Simulation: Computation and Performance Guarantees," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 232-249, January.
    5. Marrel, Amandine & Chabridon, Vincent, 2021. "Statistical developments for target and conditional sensitivity analysis: Application on safety studies for nuclear reactor," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    6. Rubinstein, Reuven Y., 1991. "Modified importance sampling for performance evaluation and sensitivity analysis of computer simulation models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Laub, Patrick J. & Salomone, Robert & Botev, Zdravko I., 2019. "Monte Carlo estimation of the density of the sum of dependent random variables," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 23-31.
    8. Jingxu Xu & Zeyu Zheng, 2023. "Gradient-Based Simulation Optimization Algorithms via Multi-Resolution System Approximations," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 633-651, May.
    9. Schweinberger, Michael & Snijders, Tom A.B., 2007. "Markov models for digraph panel data: Monte Carlo-based derivative estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4465-4483, May.
    10. Marvin K. Nakayama & Perwez Shahabuddin, 1998. "Likelihood Ratio Derivative Estimation for Finite-Time Performance Measures in Generalized Semi-Markov Processes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1426-1441, October.
    11. Ho, Yu-Chi & Li, Shu & Vakili, Pirooz, 1988. "On the efficient generation of discrete event sample paths under different system parameter values," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 347-370.
    12. Chabridon, Vincent & Balesdent, Mathieu & Bourinet, Jean-Marc & Morio, Jérôme & Gayton, Nicolas, 2018. "Reliability-based sensitivity estimators of rare event probability in the presence of distribution parameter uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 164-178.
    13. Yijie Peng & Li Xiao & Bernd Heidergott & L. Jeff Hong & Henry Lam, 2022. "A New Likelihood Ratio Method for Training Artificial Neural Networks," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 638-655, January.

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