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Modeling and analysis of Tuberculosis (TB) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

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  • Ullah, Saif
  • Khan, Muhammad Altaf
  • Farooq, Muhammad
  • Gul, Taza

Abstract

In this paper, we present a mathematical model on the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, province of Pakistan. The model is parameterized using TB infected cases reported from the year 2002 to 2017 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The basic reproduction number R0 for the given period is estimated as R0≈1.3419. Mathematical analysis of the model in terms of stability analysis is derived and discussed in detail. The model at the disease free case is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0<1. Further, when the basic reproduction number R0>1, then the model is stable locally as well as globally. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are performed and their corresponding graphical results are presented. Finally, the numerical results for the sensitive parameters are plotted and their effects are shown on the disease elimination.

Suggested Citation

  • Ullah, Saif & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Farooq, Muhammad & Gul, Taza, 2019. "Modeling and analysis of Tuberculosis (TB) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 181-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:165:y:2019:i:c:p:181-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2019.03.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang, Yali & Li, Jianquan & Ma, Zhien & Liu, Luju, 2010. "Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 79-85.
    2. Ullah, Saif & Altaf Khan, Muhammad & Farooq, Muhammad, 2018. "A fractional model for the dynamics of TB virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 63-71.
    3. Wang, Yi & Cao, Jinde, 2014. "Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 81-89.
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    1. Kuddus, Md Abdul & McBryde, Emma S. & Adekunle, Adeshina I. & White, Lisa J. & Meehan, Michael T., 2021. "Mathematical analysis of a two-strain disease model with amplification," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Kuddus, Md Abdul & McBryde, Emma S. & Adekunle, Adeshina I. & Meehan, Michael T., 2022. "Analysis and simulation of a two-strain disease model with nonlinear incidence," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Wang, Wanting & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Fatmawati, & Kumam, P. & Thounthong, P., 2019. "A comparison study of bank data in fractional calculus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 369-384.
    4. Qureshi, Sania, 2020. "Periodic dynamics of rubella epidemic under standard and fractional Caputo operator with real data from Pakistan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 151-165.
    5. Fatima Sulayman & Farah Aini Abdullah & Mohd Hafiz Mohd, 2021. "An SVEIRE Model of Tuberculosis to Assess the Effect of an Imperfect Vaccine and Other Exogenous Factors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Liu, Yue, 2022. "Extinction, persistence and density function analysis of a stochastic two-strain disease model with drug resistance mutation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 433(C).
    7. Md Abdul Kuddus & Michael T Meehan & Lisa J White & Emma S McBryde & Adeshina I Adekunle, 2020. "Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-26, July.

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