IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v99y2020ics0264837719319015.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling landscape ecological assessments of land use and cover change scenarios. Application to the Bojnourd Metropolitan Area (NE Iran)

Author

Listed:
  • Darvishi, Asef
  • Yousefi, Maryam
  • Marull, Joan

Abstract

Assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) and their socio-ecological consequences on the landscape is essential for understanding the relationships between social and natural phenomena, especially in metropolitan areas. All research into the effects of metropolitan land-cover dynamics on landscape ecology should include two basic parts: LUCC simulation and Landscape Ecological Assessment (LEA). This paper proposes a novel integrated LEA-LUCC model that includes Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN), Markov Chains (MC) and Ecological Connectivity Index (ECI) able to cope with the complex and non-linear nature of metropolitan socio-ecological systems. Based on Landsat satellite images (1988, 1998, 2008, 2018) of the Bojnourd Metropolitan Area (NE Iran), and using MLPNN and MC to simulate LUCC (2028, 2038), we compare historical and future scenarios and assess their impact on ECI. Our research showed the potential of the tested models for recognizing spatiotemporal LUCC and the efficiency of remote sensing data in LUCC assessment, especially in regions lacking land-cover databases. As the outcome of the integrated models reveals, LUCC in the metropolis of Bojnourd could cause an important depression of landscape ecological functioning. The proposed LEA–LUCC model is a valuable tool for enhancing landscape sustainability in dynamic metropolitan areas and for predicting the effects of land-use planning. The LEA–LUCC model should help policy-makers and land-managers choose appropriate strategies in the socio-ecological transition of complex metropolitan systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Darvishi, Asef & Yousefi, Maryam & Marull, Joan, 2020. "Modelling landscape ecological assessments of land use and cover change scenarios. Application to the Bojnourd Metropolitan Area (NE Iran)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:99:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719319015
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105098
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837719319015
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105098?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dupras, Jerôme & Marull, Joan & Parcerisas, Lluís & Coll, Francesc & Gonzalez, Andrew & Girard, Marc & Tello, Enric, 2016. "The impacts of urban sprawl on ecological connectivity in the Montreal Metropolitan Region," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 61-73.
    2. Schulp, Catharina J.E. & Levers, Christian & Kuemmerle, Tobias & Tieskens, Koen F. & Verburg, Peter H., 2019. "Mapping and modelling past and future land use change in Europe’s cultural landscapes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 332-344.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Darvishi, Asef & Yousefi, Maryam & Marull, Joan & Dinan, Naghmeh Mobarghaee, 2022. "Modelling ecological scarcity considering the long-term interaction between human and nature in dry agricultural landscapes. Application in Qazvin (Iran)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).
    2. Marull, Joan & Padró, Roc & La Rota-Aguilera, María José & Pino, Joan & Giocoli, Annalisa & Cirera, Jacob & Ruiz-Forés, Núria & Coll, Francesc & Serrano-Tovar, Tarik & Velasco-Fernández, Raúl, 2023. "Modelling land use planning: Socioecological integrated analysis of metropolitan green infrastructures," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Egidi, Gianluca & Mosconi, Enrico Maria & Turco, Rosario & Salvati, Luca, 2023. "Functions follow structures? The long-term evolution of economic dynamics, social transformations, and landscape morphology in a Mediterranean metropolis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Yanping Yang & Jianjun Chen & Yanping Lan & Guoqing Zhou & Haotian You & Xiaowen Han & Yu Wang & Xue Shi, 2022. "Landscape Pattern and Ecological Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on Land Use Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Rongtian Zhang & Jianfei Lu, 2021. "Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Wafaa Majeed Mutashar Al-Hameedi & Jie Chen & Cheechouyang Faichia & Biswajit Nath & Bazel Al-Shaibah & Ali Al-Aizari, 2022. "Geospatial Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change and Land Surface Temperature for Landscape Risk Pattern Change Evaluation of Baghdad City, Iraq, Using CA–Markov and ANN Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-31, July.
    7. Yongqiang Liu & Shuang Wang & Zipeng Chen & Shuangshuang Tu, 2022. "Research on the Response of Ecosystem Service Function to Landscape Pattern Changes Caused by Land Use Transition: A Case Study of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, May.
    8. Shili Guo & Xian Deng & Jiaxuan Ran & Xiangyu Ding, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Ecological Connectivity in the Ethnic Areas, Sichuan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Jinsen Mou & Zhaofang Chen & Junda Huang, 2023. "Predicting Urban Expansion to Assess the Change of Landscape Character Types and Its Driving Factors in the Mountain City," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, April.
    10. Biao Zhang & Dian Shao & Zhonghu Zhang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution Dynamic, Effect and Governance Policy of Construction Land Use in Urban Agglomeration: Case Study of Yangtze River Delta, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-36, May.
    11. Xiufeng Cao & Zhaoshun Liu & Shujie Li & Zhenjun Gao, 2022. "Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-19, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maggie MacKinnon & Maibritt Pedersen Zari & Daniel K. Brown, 2023. "Improving Urban Habitat Connectivity for Native Birds: Using Least-Cost Path Analyses to Design Urban Green Infrastructure Networks," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Jinming Yang & Shimei Li & Huicui Lu, 2019. "Quantitative Influence of Land-Use Changes and Urban Expansion Intensity on Landscape Pattern in Qingdao, China: Implications for Urban Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Pahlavani, Parham & Sheikhian, Hossein & Bigdeli, Behnaz, 2020. "Evaluation of residential land use compatibilities using a density-based IOWA operator and an ANFIS-based model: A case study of Tehran, Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Tomasz Rokicki & Aleksandra Perkowska & Bogdan Klepacki & Piotr Bórawski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Konrad Michalski, 2021. "Changes in Energy Consumption in Agriculture in the EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Susana Silva & Paulo Carvalho, 2022. "Historic Gardens Heritage in Portugal: From the Originality of an Art to the Inventory Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Chuai, Xiaowei & Yuan, Ye & Zhang, Xiuying & Guo, Xiaomin & Zhang, Xiaolei & Xie, Fangjian & Zhao, Rongqin & Li, Jianbao, 2019. "Multiangle land use-linked carbon balance examination in Nanjing City, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 305-315.
    7. Chao Xu & Dagmar Haase & Meirong Su & Yutao Wang & Stephan Pauleit, 2020. "Assessment of landscape changes under different urban dynamics based on a multiple-scenario modeling approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1361-1379, October.
    8. Raphael Karutz & Christian J. A. Klassert & Sigrun Kabisch, 2023. "On Farmland and Floodplains—Modeling Urban Growth Impacts Based on Global Population Scenarios in Pune, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Orsi, Francesco & Ciolli, Marco & Primmer, Eeva & Varumo, Liisa & Geneletti, Davide, 2020. "Mapping hotspots and bundles of forest ecosystem services across the European Union," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Marianno de Olivera, Laís Caroline & de Mendonça, Gislaine Costa & Araújo Costa, Renata Cristina & Leite de Camargo, Regina Aparecida & Fernandes, Luís Filipe Sanches & Pacheco, Fernando António Leal , 2023. "Impacts of urban sprawl in the Administrative Region of Ribeirão Preto (Brazil) and measures to restore improved landscapes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Luis Gomes & Tânia Nobre & Adélia Sousa & Fernando Rei & Nuno Guiomar, 2020. "Hyperspectral Reflectance as a Basis to Discriminate Olive Varieties—A Tool for Sustainable Crop Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    12. Xiaowei Chuai & Jiqun Wen & Dachang Zhuang & Xiaomin Guo & Ye Yuan & Yue Lu & Mei Zhang & Jiasheng Li, 2019. "Intersection of Physical and Anthropogenic Effects on Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes in Coastal China of Jiangsu Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    13. René Ulloa-Espíndola & Susana Martín-Fernández, 2021. "Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Changes Applying Cellular Automata in the South of Quito and the Machachi Valley, Province of Pichincha, Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-25, August.
    14. Fernando Rubiera-Morollón & Ruben Garrido-Yserte, 2020. "Recent Literature about Urban Sprawl: A Renewed Relevance of the Phenomenon from the Perspective of Environmental Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-14, August.
    15. Yanjie Zhang & Wei Song, 2020. "Identify Ecological Corridors and Build Potential Ecological Networks in Response to Recent Land Cover Changes in Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-23, October.
    16. Anna Żemła-Siesicka & Urszula Myga-Piątek, 2021. "A Landscape Persistence Assessment of Częstochowa Upland: A Case Study of Ogrodzieniec, Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, June.
    17. Dikman Maheng & Assela Pathirana & Chris Zevenbergen, 2021. "A Preliminary Study on the Impact of Landscape Pattern Changes Due to Urbanization: Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, February.
    18. Chonmapat Torasa & Waleerak Sittisom & Witthaya Mekhum, 2020. "What Difference Urban Sprawl, Industrialization and Migration Can Make in Energy Consumption? A Time-series Analysis of Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 577-583.
    19. Bezáková, Magdaléna & Bezák, Peter, 2022. "Which sustainability objectives are difficult to achieve? The mid-term evaluation of predicted scenarios in remote mountain agricultural landscapes in Slovakia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Yan, Jinming & Zhang, Dongsheng & Xia, Fangzhou, 2021. "Evaluation of village land use planning risks in green concepts: The case of Qiwangfen Village in Beijing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:99:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719319015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.