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Step-through simulation

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  • Ulvila, Jacob W
  • Brown, Rex V
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    Abstract

    This report describes the initial development of the Step-Through variant of Monte Carlo simulation, a new procedure for implementing decision analysis or for training decision makers. Like regular Monte Carlo simulation, it involves sampling possible aftermaths of an initial action, and generating a distribution of outcome values for it. However, the detailed structure and/or assessments of the decision model are elicited as called for in the execution of each trial. It, therefore, permits substantial economy of elicitation if there are few trials. The Step-Through procedure also offers economy of elicitation and calculation over a traditional extensive tree decision-analytic model without requiring simplifications or aggregations in the model's conceptualization. In addition to describing this procedure, this paper presents the results of a preliminary test and evaluation of its viability.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC4-48NJ36Y-7X/2/23553248f2a8d56c100819f12d2cfadb
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

    Volume (Year): 6 (1978)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 25-31

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:6:y:1978:i:1:p:25-31

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