Accuracy in the long run--Where are we now
AbstractLong-term forecasting must be viewed as informative speculation about the future. It should be credited with relatively little scientific authenticity. At the present stage of theory and data, no magic methods can be expected to overcome the problem of satisfactory forecasting. Improvement, however, is certainly not just a question of putting more and more variables and more and more numbers into a computer. Methods which indicate how to cushion against uncertainty and methods which bring a greater awareness of options for the future are essential if we are to gain greater control over events. The hazy images of the long-term future which are generated by scenario and other forms of analysis form the guidelines within which short and especially medium-term choices must be made. But in the end we must recognise the inherent limitations of forecasting and forecasting methods and think of forecasting not so much as a method of prediction but as a contribution to tackling the future in a more integrated sense.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.
Volume (Year): 5 (1977)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.