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An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between mutual fund flow and market return volatility

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  • Cao, Charles
  • Chang, Eric C.
  • Wang, Ying
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    Abstract

    We study the dynamic relation between aggregate mutual fund flow and market-wide volatility. Using daily flow data and a VAR approach, we find that market volatility is negatively related to concurrent and lagged flow. A structural VAR impulse response analysis suggests that shock in flow has a negative impact on market volatility: An inflow (outflow) shock predicts a decline (an increase) in volatility. From the perspective of volatility-flow relation, we find evidence of volatility timing for recent period of 1998-2003. Finally, we document a differential impact of daily inflow versus outflow on intraday volatility. The relation between intraday volatility and inflow (outflow) becomes weaker (stronger) from morning to afternoon.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 10 (October)
    Pages: 2111-2123

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2111-2123

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Mutual fund flow Market volatility Volatility timing Fund inflow and fund outflow;

    References

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    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    3. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    4. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    6. Ippolito, Richard A, 1992. "Consumer Reaction to Measures of Poor Quality: Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-70, April.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    8. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    9. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    10. Busse, Jeffrey A, 1999. "Volatility Timing in Mutual Funds: Evidence from Daily Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1009-41.
    11. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    12. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Rakowski, David & Wang, Xiaoxin, 2009. "The dynamics of short-term mutual fund flows and returns: A time-series and cross-sectional investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2102-2109, November.
    2. Giambona, Erasmo & Golec, Joseph, 2009. "Mutual fund volatility timing and management fees," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 589-599, April.
    3. Watson, John & Wickramanayake, J., 2012. "The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 451-472.
    4. Badrinath, S.G. & Gubellini, S., 2011. "On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1762-1776, July.
    5. Dubofsky, David A., 2010. "Mutual fund portfolio trading and investor flow," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 802-812, April.
    6. Ferris, Stephen P. & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2009. "Agency costs, governance, and organizational forms: Evidence from the mutual fund industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 619-626, April.
    7. Dötz, Niko & Weth, Mark, 2013. "Cash holdings of German open-end equity funds: Does ownership matter?," Discussion Papers 47/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    8. Alexakis, Christos & Dasilas, Apostolos & Grose, Chris, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamic relations between stock prices and mutual fund units in Japan. An application of hidden cointegration technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-8.
    9. Boldin, Michael & Cici, Gjergji, 2010. "The index fund rationality paradox," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 33-43, January.

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