IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v52y2016icp35-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of short-term forecasting for flight arrival time

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Myung Suk

Abstract

We suggest various methodologies to provide short-term forecasting of flight arrival times. Flights arriving at Denver International Airport from various U.S. cities during 2010 are used for the model estimation, and the forecasting is applied to 2011 flights. Forecasting proceeds from the time at which a flight departs from an airport. Prediction models using the spline smoothing-based nonparametric additive techniques are applied and compared with benchmarks. We also provide a method for computing the probability of flight arrival time by fitting the skew t distribution to the models’ residuals. Our empirical results indicate that a nonparametric additive model dominantly outperforms the other models considered. In terms of effect of predictor variables, departure delay time, scheduled airborne time, airlines, and weather conditions significantly improve forecasting accuracy, along with seasonal variables. In particular, departure delay time is the most important factor for substantially improving prediction performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Myung Suk, 2016. "Analysis of short-term forecasting for flight arrival time," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 35-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:52:y:2016:i:c:p:35-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699715001398
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Azzalini & A. Capitanio, 1999. "Statistical applications of the multivariate skew normal distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(3), pages 579-602.
    2. Vinayak Deshpande & Mazhar Arıkan, 2012. "The Impact of Airline Flight Schedules on Flight Delays," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 423-440, July.
    3. Tu, Yufeng & Ball, Michael O. & Jank, Wolfgang S., 2008. "Estimating Flight Departure Delay DistributionsA Statistical Approach With Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Pattern," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 112-125, March.
    4. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    5. AhmadBeygi, Shervin & Cohn, Amy & Guan, Yihan & Belobaba, Peter, 2008. "Analysis of the potential for delay propagation in passenger airline networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 221-236.
    6. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    7. Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2003. "Network Effects, Congestion Externalities, and Air Traffic Delays: Or Why Not All Delays Are Evil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1194-1215, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Shaolong & Lu, Hongxu & Tsui, Kwok-Leung & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Nonlinear vector auto-regression neural network for forecasting air passenger flow," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-62.
    2. Arora, Swapan Deep & Mathur, Sameer, 2020. "Effect of airline choice and temporality on flight delays," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Wang, Chunzheng & Hu, Minghua & Yang, Lei & Zhao, Zheng, 2022. "Improving the spatial-temporal generalization of flight block time prediction: A development of stacking models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Diana, Tony, 2018. "Can machines learn how to forecast taxi-out time? A comparison of predictive models applied to the case of Seattle/Tacoma International Airport," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 149-164.
    5. Achenbach, Anna & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Prescriptive analytics in airline operations: Arrival time prediction and cost index optimization for short-haul flights," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 265-279.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariana Nicolae & Mazhar Arıkan & Vinayak Deshpande & Mark Ferguson, 2017. "Do Bags Fly Free? An Empirical Analysis of the Operational Implications of Airline Baggage Fees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3187-3206, October.
    2. Mazhar Arıkan & Vinayak Deshpande & Milind Sohoni, 2013. "Building Reliable Air-Travel Infrastructure Using Empirical Data and Stochastic Models of Airline Networks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 45-64, February.
    3. Diana, Tony, 2018. "Can machines learn how to forecast taxi-out time? A comparison of predictive models applied to the case of Seattle/Tacoma International Airport," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 149-164.
    4. Rodríguez-Sanz, à lvaro & Comendador, Fernando Gómez & Valdés, Rosa Arnaldo & Pérez-Castán, Javier A., 2018. "Characterization and prediction of the airport operational saturation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 147-172.
    5. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Smith, Michael, 2010. "Bayesian skew selection for multivariate models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1824-1839, July.
    6. Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2019. "Forecasting with Unknown Unknowns: Censoring and Fat Tails on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee," EMF Research Papers 27, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    7. Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle & Marc G. Genton, 2010. "Multivariate extended skew-t distributions and related families," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3), pages 201-234.
    8. Azzalini, Adelchi & Browne, Ryan P. & Genton, Marc G. & McNicholas, Paul D., 2016. "On nomenclature for, and the relative merits of, two formulations of skew distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 201-206.
    9. Cornelis J. Potgieter & Marc G. Genton, 2013. "Characteristic Function-based Semiparametric Inference for Skew-symmetric Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 40(3), pages 471-490, September.
    10. Sladana Babic & Laetitia Gelbgras & Marc Hallin & Christophe Ley, 2019. "Optimal tests for elliptical symmetry: specified and unspecified location," Working Papers ECARES 2019-26, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Bae, Jiheon, 2021. "Modeling the flight departure delay using survival analysis in South Korea," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Kang, Lei & Hansen, Mark, 2017. "Behavioral analysis of airline scheduled block time adjustment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 56-68.
    13. Zhe Zheng & Wenbin Wei & Bo Zou & Minghua Hu, 2020. "How Late Does Your Flight Depart? A Quantile Regression Approach for a Chinese Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Douadia Bougherara & Laurent Piet, 2018. "On the role of probability weighting on WTP for crop insurance with and without yield skewness," Working Papers hal-02790605, HAL.
    15. Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle, 2010. "On the information matrix of the multivariate skew-t model," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3), pages 371-386.
    16. Shushi, Tomer, 2018. "A proof for the existence of multivariate singular generalized skew-elliptical density functions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 50-55.
    17. Yu, Bin & Guo, Zhen & Asian, Sobhan & Wang, Huaizhu & Chen, Gang, 2019. "Flight delay prediction for commercial air transport: A deep learning approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 203-221.
    18. Zinoviy Landsman & Udi Makov & Tomer Shushi, 2017. "Extended Generalized Skew-Elliptical Distributions and their Moments," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 79(1), pages 76-100, February.
    19. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
    20. Saralees Nadarajah & Bo Zhang & Stephen Chan, 2014. "Estimation methods for expected shortfall," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 271-291, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:52:y:2016:i:c:p:35-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.