IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v40y2024i1p44-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bars, lines and points: The effect of graph format on judgmental forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Reimers, Stian
  • Harvey, Nigel

Abstract

Time series are often presented graphically, and forecasters often judgmentally extrapolate graphically presented data. However, graphs come in many different formats: here, we examine the effect of format when non-experts make forecasts from data presented as bar charts, line graphs, and point graphs. In four web-based experiments with over 4000 participants, we elicited judgmental forecasts for eight points that followed a trended time series containing 50 points. Forecasts were lower for bar charts relative to either line or point graphs. Factors potentially affecting these format effects were investigated: We found that the intensity of shading had no effect on forecasts and that using horizontal stepped lines led to higher forecasts than bars. We also found that participants added more noise to their forecasts for bars than for points, leading to worse performance overall. These findings suggest that format significantly influences judgmental time series forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Reimers, Stian & Harvey, Nigel, 2024. "Bars, lines and points: The effect of graph format on judgmental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 44-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:44-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207022001467
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.11.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:44-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.