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Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model

Author

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  • Holmes, Benjamin
  • McHale, Ian G.

Abstract

The paper presents a model for forecasting the results of football matches, which takes into account the abilities of the players on each team. The advantage of this approach is that the dynamic nature of team strengths is incorporated into the model directly. We test our model against the bookmaker’s predictions and in a Kelly-type betting strategy applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market. The new model results in significant positive returns to betting.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Benjamin & McHale, Ian G., 2024. "Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 302-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:302-312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.03.002
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