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Flood inundation uncertainty: The case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event

Author

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  • Prime, Thomas
  • Brown, Jennifer M.
  • Plater, Andrew J.

Abstract

Aging coastal defences around the UK are challenging managers to redesign schemes to be resilient to extreme events and climate change, be cost-effective, and have minimal or beneficial environmental impact. To enable effective design, reduced uncertainty in the assessment of flood risk due to natural variability within the coastal forcing is required to focus on conditions that pose highest threat. The typical UK standard of protection for coastal defences is to withstand a 0.5% annual probability event, historically also known as a 1 in 200 year return period event. However, joint wave-water level probability curves provide a range of conditions that meet this criterion. We examine the Dungeness and Romney Marsh coastal zone, a region of high value in terms of habitat and energy assets, to quantify the uncertainty in flood depth and extent generated by a 0.5% probability event, and to explore which combinations of wave and water levels generate the greatest threat.

Suggested Citation

  • Prime, Thomas & Brown, Jennifer M. & Plater, Andrew J., 2016. "Flood inundation uncertainty: The case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.01.018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jidong Wu & Mengqi Ye & Xu Wang & Elco Koks, 2019. "Building Asset Value Mapping in Support of Flood Risk Assessments: A Case Study of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Roche, R.C. & Walker-Springett, K. & Robins, P.E. & Jones, J. & Veneruso, G. & Whitton, T.A. & Piano, M. & Ward, S.L. & Duce, C.E. & Waggitt, J.J. & Walker-Springett, G.R. & Neill, S.P. & Lewis, M.J. , 2016. "Research priorities for assessing potential impacts of emerging marine renewable energy technologies: Insights from developments in Wales (UK)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1327-1341.
    3. Charlotte Lyddon & Jenny M Brown & Nicoletta Leonardi & Andrew J Plater, 2018. "Uncertainty in estuarine extreme water level predictions due to surge-tide interaction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Bouchra Zellou & Hassane Rahali, 2017. "Assessment of reduced-complexity landscape evolution model suitability to adequately simulate flood events in complex flow conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Pratyay Manna & Mohammed Zafar Anis & Prasun Das & Soumya Banerjee, 2019. "Probabilistic Modeling of Flood Hazard and its Risk Assessment for Eastern Region of India," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(7), pages 1615-1633, July.

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