Driving factors of carbon emissions from household energy combustion in China

Reducing carbon emissions resulting from household direct energy combustion while ensuring equal access to energy is essential for fair transition towards carbon neutrality. In this regard, understanding the driving factors of household direct carbon emissions and projecting future emission pathways are necessary for effective policy implementation. In this study, we applied the logarithmic mean Divisia index model to investigate changes in household direct carbon emissions from 2000 to 2021, and established six scenarios to assess the impacts of energy efficiency improvement and energy transition on carbon reduction. The results showed that the growing household expenditure continuously drives the increase in direct carbon emissions, while the decline in the energy demand per unit household expenditure and energy transition drives the decrease in carbon emissions. Replacing direct energy combustion with electricity is vital to reduce household direct emissions. This study highlights the importance of improving the energy efficiency and promoting the electrification of household energy consumption. Policy interventions should be implemented to facilitate behavioural changes, technology development, and low-carbon infrastructure construction.