Exploring the connections between mini-grid market regulation and energy access expansion: The case of Nigeria

About 140 million people across Africa are expected to gain access to electricity from mini grids by 2040. Nigeria, with the least dependable electricity supply on the continent, stands to benefit significantly from this boon. Accordingly, the government has put in place clear regulations to incentivise private investment and drive market growth. While the techno-economic dimensions of the growing mini-grid sector and the broader electricity industry have been extensively studied, less attention has been paid to analysing the impacts of the regulatory framework on the achievement of rural electrification and universal energy access goals. Drawing on qualitative data obtained from key regulatory and market actors in the Nigerian mini-grid sector, this paper interrogates the premise of pursuing widespread rural electrification through a regulatory framework that is primarily geared toward increasing market efficiency. The study finds that, while the current framework has enabled growth in the sector, complementary mechanisms are required to achieve equitable distribution of access, especially among the mainly rural populations dwelling on the fringes of mainstream electricity markets. The findings are instructive for practitioners and policy makers seeking evidence-informed approaches to achieving the goal of universal energy access in Africa.