Energy security dilemma and energy transition policy in the context of climate change: A perspective from China

Fossil fuel-related energy crises continue to threaten energy security and create problems for the transition to low-carbon energy. This study estimates the effects of coal-to-gas policies on natural gas consumption in various regions in China using the two-way fixed-effects multi-period difference in differences method and the staggered difference in differences method. We also measure the policy implementation intensity using textual analysis methods. Using daily data on natural gas consumption, the regression discontinuity design in time method is applied to explore the causality between coal-to-gas policies and natural gas shortages. The main results are as follows: coal-to-gas policies significantly boost yearly average natural gas consumption. A heterogeneity analysis shows townships, rural, and county are the focus of policy implementation. Investments in natural gas utilities and increased gas utilization are the main channels for increasing natural gas demand. While coal-to-gas policies cause natural gas shortages during the heating season, additional pipeline networks, liquefied natural gas receiving station and gas storage depots could improve the stability of supplies and reduce the impact of peak-to-trough differences. The article demonstrates for the first time that radical energy transition policies are one of the main causes of the energy crisis, providing a crucial foundation for national energy and environmental policies, and having some implications for the global energy transition process.