Technological innovation and its influence on energy risk management: Unpacking China’s energy consumption structure optimisation amidst climate change

In the context of intensifying climate challenges, adept energy risk management is more pertinent than ever. This research pioneers an in-depth exploration into China’s pronounced reliance on high-polluting fossil fuels, utilising a decade’s worth of provincial data (2010–2020) to shed light on the intricate dynamics between technological innovation and energy consumption structure refinement. Notably, our findings unveil that technological advancements act as catalysts in streamlining energy consumption structures, serving as a bulwark against emergent climate-related risks. Yet, this positive trajectory is not immune to disruptions: volatility in crude oil futures prices has the potential to dampen these benefits, ushering in heightened financial risks. Our work further underscores pronounced regional variances; technological innovation yields diminished returns in the central and western regions compared to their eastern counterparts. An intriguing observation is the resilience exhibited by coal-dependent provinces to technological evolution, pointing towards entrenched energy infrastructure challenges. Crucially, this study is among the first to identify the dual roles of industrial structure evolution and energy pricing dynamics as mediators in energy risk management. Drawing from these insights, we advocate for a proactive harnessing of technological innovation, not merely as a tool, but as an imperative to drive China’s energy transformation, foster sustainable consumption, and lay the foundation for a fortified green and low-carbon technological ecosystem.