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Marked Hawkes process modeling of price dynamics and volatility estimation

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  • Lee, Kyungsub
  • Seo, Byoung Ki

Abstract

A simple Hawkes model have been developed for the price tick structure dynamics incorporating market microstructure noise and trade clustering. In this paper, the model is extended with random mark to deal with more realistic price tick structures of equities. We examine the impact of jump in price dynamics to the future movements and dependency between the jump sizes and ground intensities. We also derive the volatility formula based on stochastic and statistical methods and compare with realized volatility in simulation and empirical studies. The marked Hawkes model is useful to estimate the intraday volatility similarly in the case of simple Hawkes model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Kyungsub & Seo, Byoung Ki, 2017. "Marked Hawkes process modeling of price dynamics and volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 174-200.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:40:y:2017:i:c:p:174-200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.08.004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Kyungsub, 2023. "Recurrent neural network based parameter estimation of Hawkes model on high-frequency financial data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    2. Herrera, R. & Clements, A.E., 2018. "Point process models for extreme returns: Harnessing implied volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 161-175.
    3. Sobin Joseph & Shashi Jain, 2024. "Non-Parametric Estimation of Multi-dimensional Marked Hawkes Processes," Papers 2402.04740, arXiv.org.
    4. Ji, Jingru & Wang, Donghua & Xu, Dinghai & Xu, Chi, 2020. "Combining a self-exciting point process with the truncated generalized Pareto distribution: An extreme risk analysis under price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 52-70.
    5. Timoth'ee Fabre & Ioane Muni Toke, 2024. "Neural Hawkes: Non-Parametric Estimation in High Dimension and Causality Analysis in Cryptocurrency Markets," Papers 2401.09361, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    6. Kyungsub Lee, 2023. "Recurrent neural network based parameter estimation of Hawkes model on high-frequency financial data," Papers 2304.11883, arXiv.org.
    7. Markus Vogl, 2022. "Quantitative modelling frontiers: a literature review on the evolution in financial and risk modelling after the financial crisis (2008–2019)," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(12), pages 1-69, December.
    8. Konark Jain & Nick Firoozye & Jonathan Kochems & Philip Treleaven, 2024. "Limit Order Book Simulations: A Review," Papers 2402.17359, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    9. Kyungsub Lee, 2024. "Discrete Hawkes process with flexible residual distribution and filtered historical simulation," Papers 2401.13890, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tick price dynamics; Marked Hawkes process; Volatility; Ultra-high-frequency data; Impact of mark;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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