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Modelling of human decision-making in simulation models of conflict using experimental gaming

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  • Moffat, James
  • Medhurst, John

Abstract

Over the past few years we have developed a number of key components which allow us to capture the effects of command decision-making in simulation models of conflict. One of these key components is the Rapid Planning process, which is based on the psychological construct of naturalistic decision-making. Validating such theoretical approaches and assumptions is an on-going activity which helps build confidence over time that our models and theories are valid within our domain of application, and can be used as the basis of sound advice to our customers in the UK Ministry of Defence. Here we present one piece of that validation; a series of command decision-making games which were analysed using a probit-based statistical approach. In the paper we show that the results of these games gives strong support to the way in which rapid planning captures such decision-making in algorithmic form.

Suggested Citation

  • Moffat, James & Medhurst, John, 2009. "Modelling of human decision-making in simulation models of conflict using experimental gaming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1147-1157, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:196:y:2009:i:3:p:1147-1157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tianming Yang & Michael N. Shadlen, 2007. "Probabilistic reasoning by neurons," Nature, Nature, vol. 447(7148), pages 1075-1080, June.
    2. B Taylor & A Lane, 2004. "Development of a novel family of military campaign simulation models," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 333-339, April.
    3. L Dodd & J Moffat & J Smith, 2006. "Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 643-654, June.
    4. J Moffat & I Campbell & P Glover, 2004. "Validation of the mission-based approach to representing command and control in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 340-349, April.
    5. J Moffat, 2000. "Representing the command and control process in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(4), pages 431-439, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. J Medhurst & I Stanton & A Berry, 2010. "Risk taking by decision makers—using card-based decision gaming to develop models of behaviour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(11), pages 1561-1571, November.

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