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Scenario planning including ecosystem services for a coastal region in South Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Sandhu, Harpinder
  • Clarke, Beverley
  • Baring, Ryan
  • Anderson, Sharolyn
  • Fisk, Claire
  • Dittmann, Sabine
  • Walker, Stewart
  • Sutton, Paul
  • Kubiszewski, Ida
  • Costanza, Robert

Abstract

Coastal regions provide vital ecosystem services for the human well-being. Rapid economic growth and increasing population in coastal regions is exerting more pressure on coastal environments. Here we develop four plausible scenarios to the year 2050 that address above issues in the northern Adelaide coastline, South Australia. Four scenarios were named after their characteristics, Lacuna, Gold Coast SA, Down to Earth, and Green & Gold. Lacuna and Gold Coast SA. Economy declined significantly in Lacuna, whereas, there is highest annual GDP growth (3.5%) in Gold Coast SA, which was closely followed by Green & Gold scenario (3%), GDP under Down to Earth grows at moderate 1.5%. There is highest population growth in Gold Coast SA followed by Green & Gold, Down to Earth and Lacuna. Gold Coast SA scenario led to high inequality as estimated by the Gini co-efficient of 0.45 compared to the current value of 0.33. Ecosystem services declined rapidly under Green & Gold and Lacuna as compared to the other two scenarios. The combination of scenario planning and ecosystem services valuation provides the capacity to guide coastal planning by illustrating enhanced social, environmental and economic benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandhu, Harpinder & Clarke, Beverley & Baring, Ryan & Anderson, Sharolyn & Fisk, Claire & Dittmann, Sabine & Walker, Stewart & Sutton, Paul & Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert, 2018. "Scenario planning including ecosystem services for a coastal region in South Australia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PA), pages 194-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:31:y:2018:i:pa:p:194-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.04.006
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    2. Serrao-Neumann, Silvia & Schuch, Gemma & Cox, Melanie & Low Choy, Darryl, 2019. "Scenario planning for climate change adaptation for natural resource management: Insights from the Australian East Coast Cluster," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Peng, Jian & Hu, Xiaoxu & Wang, Xiaoyu & Meersmans, Jeroen & Liu, Yanxu & Qiu, Sijing, 2019. "Simulating the impact of Grain-for-Green Programme on ecosystem services trade-offs in Northwestern Yunnan, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Stavros Kalogiannidis, 2020. "Impact of Plant Closures on Urban and Regional Communities: A Case Study of South Australian Gas Industry and its Workers," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 994-1010.
    5. Di Pirro, E. & Sallustio, L. & Capotorti, G. & Marchetti, M. & Lasserre, B., 2021. "A scenario-based approach to tackle trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and land use pressure in Central Italy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 448(C).
    6. Keenan, Rodney J. & Pozza, Greg & Fitzsimons, James A., 2019. "Ecosystem services in environmental policy: Barriers and opportunities for increased adoption," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-1.

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