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An individual-based model to explore the impacts of lesser-known social dynamics on wolf populations

Author

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  • Bauduin, Sarah
  • Grente, Oksana
  • Santostasi, Nina Luisa
  • Ciucci, Paolo
  • Duchamp, Christophe
  • Gimenez, Olivier

Abstract

The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because of conflicts with human activities. Modeling is an important tool to project wolf dynamics and expansion, and help in decision making concerning management and conservation. However, some individual behaviors and pack dynamics of the wolf life cycle are still unclear to ecologists. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) to project wolf populations while exploring the lesser-known processes of the wolf life cycle. IBMs are bottom-up models that simulate the fate of individuals interacting with each other, with population-level properties emerging from the individual-level simulations. IBMs are particularly adapted to represent social species such as the wolf that exhibits complex individual interactions. Our IBM projects wolf demography including fine-scale individual behavior and pack dynamics based on up-to-date scientific literature. We explore four processes of the wolf life cycle whose consequences on population dynamics are still poorly understood: the pack dissolution following the loss of a breeder, the adoption of young dispersers by packs, the establishment of new packs through budding, and the different breeder replacement strategies. While running different versions of the IBM to explore these processes, we also illustrate the modularity and flexibility of our model, an asset to model wolf populations experiencing different ecological and demographic conditions. The different parameterization of pack dissolution, territory establishment by budding, and breeder replacement processes influence the projections of wolf populations. As such, these processes require further field investigation to be better understood. The adoption process has a lesser impact on model projections. Being coded in R to facilitate its understanding, we expect that our model will be used and further adapted by ecologists for their own specific applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Bauduin, Sarah & Grente, Oksana & Santostasi, Nina Luisa & Ciucci, Paolo & Duchamp, Christophe & Gimenez, Olivier, 2020. "An individual-based model to explore the impacts of lesser-known social dynamics on wolf populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 433(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:433:y:2020:i:c:s0304380020302799
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chapron, Guillaume & Wikenros, Camilla & Liberg, Olof & Wabakken, Petter & Flagstad, Øystein & Milleret, Cyril & Månsson, Johan & Svensson, Linn & Zimmermann, Barbara & Åkesson, Mikael & Sand, Håkan, 2016. "Estimating wolf (Canis lupus) population size from number of packs and an individual based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 33-44.
    2. Marescot, Lucile & Gimenez, Olivier & Duchamp, Christophe & Marboutin, Eric & Chapron, Guillaume, 2012. "Reducing matrix population models with application to social animal species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 91-96.
    3. Grimm, Volker & Berger, Uta & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Polhill, J. Gary & Giske, Jarl & Railsback, Steven F., 2010. "The ODD protocol: A review and first update," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(23), pages 2760-2768.
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