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Modelling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in forest ecosystems of Central Russia under different climate change scenarios and forest management regimes

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  • Shanin, Vladimir N.
  • Komarov, Alexander S.
  • Mikhailov, Alexey V.
  • Bykhovets, Sergei S.

Abstract

The individual-based stand-level model EFIMOD was used for large-scale simulations using standard data on forest inventories as model inputs. The model was verified for the case-study of field observations, and possible sources of uncertainties were analysed. The approach developed kept the ability for fine-tuning to account for spatial discontinuity in the simulated area. Several forest management regimes were simulated as well as forest wildfires and climate changes. The greatest carbon and nitrogen accumulations were observed for the regime without cuttings. It was shown that cuttings and wildfires strongly influence the processes of carbon and nitrogen accumulations in both soil and forest vegetation. Modelling also showed that the increase in annual average temperatures resulted in the partial relocation of carbon and nitrogen stocks from soil to plant biomass. However, forest management, particularly harvesting, has a greater effect on the dynamics of forest ecosystems than the prescribed climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Shanin, Vladimir N. & Komarov, Alexander S. & Mikhailov, Alexey V. & Bykhovets, Sergei S., 2011. "Modelling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in forest ecosystems of Central Russia under different climate change scenarios and forest management regimes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(14), pages 2262-2275.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:14:p:2262-2275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.11.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Larocque, Guy R. & Bhatti, Jagtar S. & Boutin, Robert & Chertov, Oleg, 2008. "Uncertainty analysis in carbon cycle models of forest ecosystems: Research needs and development of a theoretical framework to estimate error propagation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 400-412.
    2. R. B. Myneni & C. D. Keeling & C. J. Tucker & G. Asrar & R. R. Nemani, 1997. "Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991," Nature, Nature, vol. 386(6626), pages 698-702, April.
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    1. Shanin, Vladimir & Komarov, Alexander & Khoraskina, Yulia & Bykhovets, Sergey & Linkosalo, Tapio & Mäkipää, Raisa, 2013. "Carbon turnover in mixed stands: Modelling possible shifts under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 232-245.
    2. Komarov, Alexander & Chertov, Oleg & Bykhovets, Sergey & Shaw, Cindy & Nadporozhskaya, Marina & Frolov, Pavel & Shashkov, Maxim & Shanin, Vladimir & Grabarnik, Pavel & Priputina, Irina & Zubkova, Elen, 2017. "Romul_Hum model of soil organic matter formation coupled with soil biota activity. I. Problem formulation, model description, and testing," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 113-124.
    3. Shuman, Jacquelyn K. & Shugart, Herman H. & Krankina, Olga N., 2014. "Testing individual-based models of forest dynamics: Issues and an example from the boreal forests of Russia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 293(C), pages 102-110.
    4. Qifei Han & Geping Luo & Chaofan Li & Shoubo Li, 2018. "Response of Carbon Dynamics to Climate Change Varied among Different Vegetation Types in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.

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